Before the Fourth Plenary Session, there are strong undercurrents in the political situation in Beijing. Cracks have appeared in Xi Jinping’s power map, and the relationship between the military and the Communist Party has reached a crossroads. All these seem to indicate that the fate of the CCP has entered its final countdown.
So, in what way will the CCP collapse? In the post-CCP era, can China smoothly complete its political transition, or will it, as some commentators worry, descend into chaos and turmoil?
Today on “Epoch Focus,” we will discuss these topics of high concern for the global Chinese community.
First, let’s talk about in what way the CCP might exit from the historical stage.
In history, the collapse of communist regimes often does not require armed uprisings. Looking back at the disintegration of communist regimes in Eastern Europe, most of them underwent a peaceful transition of power.
The only exception was Romania, where a brief military coup targeting the top leader occurred but did not plunge the entire country into warfare. This has been the biggest bloodshed cost paid by society during the transition of communist regimes in history.
Based on historical experience, dismantling a communist regime often does not involve warfare but rather a peaceful revolution. In other words, the downfall of a communist regime is often not externally imposed but internally self-dissolved.
When a communist authoritarian system reaches an impasse and becomes the biggest obstacle to social progress, there must be a shift in people’s attitudes internally. Eventually, even those within the system holding the highest power realize the necessity of political system reform, signaling the beginning of the countdown to the collapse of the Communist Party regime. China today seems to be following this historical trajectory, and key signals have already emerged.
Currently, two internal messages within the CCP indicate that the regime has reached its final stages.
First, Wen Jiabao is strongly pushing for Wang Yang to succeed him, with the intention to promote political system reform.
Second, there is a strong desire within the military to break away from party control and transition into a national defense army.
These two signals are critical because the succession design by reformists within the system and the call for the nationalization of the military are essential steps for all communist regimes to complete the transition to democracy.
If this trend cannot be reversed, the disintegration of the CCP will no longer be mysterious or complicated but a peaceful and natural social transformation. At that time, China will not descend into chaos and turmoil but will move towards a new chapter in history.
If we analyze the situation now and the predictions made by Ms. Shu Rong earlier this year, they seem to align closely.
From the September 3 parade, it is evident that Xi Jinping is merely a puppet in the forefront, while Zhang Youxia manipulates him from behind the scenes. Zhang Youxia seems to maintain a low profile, and Liu Yuan is aiding him in consolidating military power. Xi Jinping appears to have returned to his seemingly harmless and honest demeanor before he took power, but his true mentality is biding his time for a comeback.
In this light, Ms. Shu Rong’s knowledge of metaphysics seems quite adept! This gives us added confidence in her forecasting of China’s transition process.
The social transition that China might embark on, how will this process generally unfold? What direction will it take, and how long will it last?
Back in 2024, over a year and a half ago, Ms. Shu Rong had made calculations on these questions in an episode of “Elite Forum” on NTD Television.
At that time, Shu Rong stated, “In 2024, the infighting within the CCP will escalate, and Xi Jinping’s power will weaken further. But Xi Jinping will not step down in 2024. In 2025, he should encounter a significant unfavorable event, which might lead to his stepping down. There is a possibility that a new person will replace him, likely someone from within the system.
In the beginning, this person will be very confused, unsure whether to abandon the CCP or continue on Xi Jinping’s path. However, soon enough, there will be guidance from above. He will begin purging communist elements, including material, spiritual, and ideological aspects, cleansing all levels of communist influence.
Naturally, more people will assist him, and the forces of justice will be incorporated. Gradually eliminating negative elements, the entire society will return to a traditional, clear, and authentic state, characterized by transparency.
By 2029, this process will have essentially concluded. People will be able to live in a state of normalcy, living like true individuals.”
From Ms. Shu Rong’s prediction, it appears that the political transition in China will be initiated under the leadership of a figure within the CCP, who, guided from above, will start shedding the communist system to transform Chinese society towards tradition. The whole process is estimated to last about 4 years, from 2025 to 2029. The transition is expected to be peaceful, bringing about positive outcomes.
We hope that Ms. Shu Rong’s forecasts materialize, as her vision of China’s future, contrasting predictions of turmoil, offers more hope.
After discussing metaphysical predictions, we analyze from a historical and political science perspective why China can avoid the social unrest typical of transitions and how to effectively move towards the future transition path.
Some predict that in the post-CCP era, China will fragment and plunge into turmoil, often drawing comparisons with the early days of the Republic of China. However, today’s era and social conditions are vastly different from the early days of the Republic of China.
For a country to establish an effective central government to maintain national unity and stability, there must be three major unifications: power, finance, and military.
At the beginning of the Republic of China, after Yuan Shikai became temporary president, only superficial political unity was achieved. Warlords across regions were acting independently, controlling local finances, taxation, and military power, making it impossible for the central government to collect taxes, appoint officials effectively, or intervene in the warlords’ forces. Therefore, the initial unity of the Republic was superficial.
After Yuan Shikai assumed the presidency, instead of working towards a constitutional system, he veered towards a restoration of despotism, making the transition to a mature constitutional state for the ROC more difficult and exacerbating social unrest under the rule of warlords.
It was not until Chiang Kai-shek’s successful Northern Expedition and the reestablishment of the unity of the ROC that the situation began to improve. Through a decade of diligent governance by the Nanjing government, by 1936, there was central financial unity which enabled effective management. During the War of Resistance, provincial armies gradually melded into the ROC National Army, achieving military unity. After the war, a constitution was enacted in 1946 and constitutional governance began in 1947. Without the CPC, the ROC at that time could have truly accomplished political unity.
However, the CPC’s insurgency made the difficult transition of the ROC on mainland China and ultimately led to its downfall.
This implies that the turmoil experienced by the Republic of China in transitioning from the Qing Dynasty imperial system to a constitutional republic was influenced by four major historical factors: warlord dominance, Yuan Shikai’s personal issues, Japan’s invasion, and the CPC rebellion.
After overthrowing the ROC’s mainland regime, the establishment of the People’s Republic of China under the CPC was an unprecedented despotic regime. However, from a political science perspective, under CPC rule, China has indeed achieved unity in power, finance, and military.
In today’s society, devoid of warlord dominance and external invasions, if we discard the political system of the CPC and transition to a constitutional democratic system, the newly established democratic government would have a complete national system without the need for the kind of turmoil experienced in the early Republic period.
As stated in “Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party,” the CPC is a cult, an evil organization attached to the Chinese social body. Comparatively, the administrative governance system in China under the CPC rule is quite mature. We only need to remove the CPC, this evil cult, from the existing administrative framework.
During the journey toward this goal, the nationalization of the military will be a crucial step. Once the military breaks away from party control and focuses on defending national security and maintaining social order, it will ensure a smooth political transition without military intervention. In this way, China’s political transition will be peaceful and stable, ushering in a new chapter in history.
The social transformation of China is a complex issue. Our program today only provides a rough analysis from a broad framework, attempting to outline a viable path towards a smooth transition.
The future direction will require time to validate. It is a test without ready-made answers, yet it holds opportunities and hope. Everything depends on whether the people can navigate the choices of the present.