Taiwanese meteorologist Wu Derong said that there are three typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean, with “Haugasa” being the only one posing a threat to Taiwan. According to simulation models, it is expected to strengthen to at least a medium typhoon, passing through the Bashi Channel and entering the South China Sea on the 23rd and 24th. The eastern and southern parts of Taiwan should be vigilant against heavy rainfall and potential disasters.
The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has issued high temperature alerts. Due to the influence of the peripheral circulation of the typhoon, Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Taichung City are under an orange alert on this day (19th), with a possibility of continuous temperatures reaching 36 degrees. Please pay extra attention. Taoyuan City is under a yellow alert.
Associate Professor Wu Derong of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University of Taiwan pointed out in the “Revealing Heavenly Secrets Classroom” column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation that the latest path potential prediction map from the Central Weather Bureau shows that there are three typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean, far apart and no conditions for “dancing” together.
Wu Derong stated that the tropical storm Mita will enter the Guangdong sea area, make landfall between Shanwei and Hong Kong, and gradually turn to the west, posing no threat to Taiwan. Meanwhile, the tropical storm Raccoon is far from Taiwan and also not a threat. He reminded that the tropical storm Haugasa is the only one posing a threat to Taiwan.
According to Wu Derong, the European (ECMWF) ensemble model simulates the movement of the typhoon Haugasa, similar to the Central Weather Bureau’s “path potential prediction map”. The average simulated path passes through the Bashi Channel, while individual simulated paths are scattered on both sides, indicating uncertainty in its direction. As the simulation is expected to strengthen to at least medium intensity and with uncertainty in its path, the question of whether it will bring a greater threat is the focus of ongoing observation.
Furthermore, he mentioned that the European model simulation shows that on today and the 20th, the outer periphery of tropical storm Mita and the moisture influence of a large low pressure circulation will result in localized rainfall in the Hengchun Peninsula and the eastern part in the afternoon. There is a probability of localized short-term showers or thunderstorms in the western part in the afternoon, with the possibility of heavy thunderstorms. Northern Taiwan will still be hot during the day today, while temperatures slightly decrease elsewhere. On the 21st, moisture will decrease slightly, with clear and hot weather across the region and the chance of localized short-term showers or thunderstorms in mountainous areas in the afternoon.
Wu Derong noted that the latest European model simulation indicates that the moisture will slightly decrease on the 21st, leading to clear and hot weather across the region with localized short-term showers or thunderstorms in mountainous areas in the afternoon. Next Sunday night and on the 22nd, the outer periphery of typhoon Haugasa will approach, bringing rain to greater Taipei and the eastern part. Despite the absence of cold air, temperatures in the north and east will decrease slightly due to rain, while other areas will remain relatively warm.
On the 23rd and 24th, Wu Derong stated that typhoon Haugasa will pass through the Bashi Channel and enter the South China Sea. The eastern and southern parts of Taiwan should be wary of heavy rainfall that could lead to disasters, with other areas experiencing occasional rainfall. Southern Taiwan and coastal areas should be cautious of strong winds. By the 25th when Haugasa moves further away, the western part will be clear and hot, with a probability of localized short-term showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, and the eastern part experiencing localized short-term showers.