Global is facing three major upheavals – economic, military and diplomatic landscape, which are about to enter a new stage. The US job data plummeted, with the market betting a 100% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September; Ukraine suffered the largest-scale air raid since the outbreak of war, escalating tensions on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield; President Trump’s sudden shift in stance, signaling the initiation of secondary sanctions against Russia, is expected to bring significant changes to the global economy.
On September 5th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment report for August, which greatly surprised economists. The market had expected an addition of 75,000 jobs in the US for August, but the actual number was only 22,000, indicating a continued slowdown in US job growth.
In addition, the employment growth for July was revised up by 6,000 jobs, from 73,000 to 79,000. The data for June, on the other hand, was revised from an increase of 14,000 jobs to a net decrease of 13,000 jobs. This marks the first net monthly job loss since the December 2020 crisis.
In other words, the total new job additions for June and July were only 66,000. Adding the 22,000 for August, the US only added 88,000 jobs in consecutive three months, averaging less than 30,000 jobs per month.
The BLS releases employment data for the previous month on the first Friday of each month, while also revising data for the two previous months.
Starting from August, there has been significant volatility in this data, sparking President Trump’s anger.
On August 1st, data released by the BLS showed that only 73,000 jobs were added in July, hitting the lowest level in 9 months and far below the market’s expectation of 104,000 jobs. What President Trump found unacceptable was the significant downward revisions in data for the previous two months, with May revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, almost 90%.
President Trump believed this data was severely distorted and on August 1st ordered the dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erica McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating job data.
President Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on August 1st, stating that accurate employment data is needed, emphasizing that this important data must be fair and accurate, and not manipulated for political purposes.
The report released on September 5th was the first employment data released by the new BLS commissioner, showing that US job growth had remained weak in recent months, with an overall downward revision of 21,000 for June and July.
US job data is a crucial indicator affecting the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Given the current situation, the significant statistical errors in the BLS data for June and July, by nearing 90%, justified President Trump’s decision to replace the BLS commissioner.
Facing pressure from government debt and in order to further unleash the US economic vitality, President Trump has been calling for Fed rate cuts, stating that high borrowing costs are suppressing the US economy. However, Fed Chairman Powell has consistently resisted cutting rates, citing lack of favorable economic data supporting such a move.
If the previous BLS reports had not shown such significant errors, and if the employment data for June and July had accurately reflected the true weakness in the job market in May and June, perhaps the Fed would have decided to cut rates in June or July this year, providing a significant boost to the US economy for the latter half of the year.
On September 5th, Trump accused Powell of being too slow in his actions on his Truth Social platform, stating that Powell should have cut rates much earlier, but once again, his actions were too delayed!
Some economic experts agree with Trump’s assertion. They view the current economic slowdown as a “lag effect” of the 11 rate hikes implemented by the Fed in 2022 and 2023.
Many experts believe that the employment data released on September 5th essentially ended the debate on Fed rate cuts. The new data presented clear evidence of labor market deterioration necessary for the Fed to enter a rate-cutting trajectory, providing ample rationale for future rate cuts by the Fed.
Wall Street broadly expects a 100% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting in September, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the end of 2025.
Additionally, the job data released on September 5th also validated President Trump’s correctness. In recent months, Trump has continuously called for Fed rate cuts, while Powell has been resisting the President’s calls. In the months in which Powell staunchly refrained from cutting rates, the US labor market had actually been deteriorating overall.
Commentator Jason commented on his program, “Jason’s Perspective,” stating that the Fed’s rate cut in September is no longer a proactive measure by Powell to maintain US economic prosperity, rather it has become a delayed response to the economic crisis that has already occurred. This situation is very similar to three years ago when Powell delayed raising Fed rates, leading to briefly uncontrollable inflation in the US.
Jason pointed out that the most critical question brought by the job data is: will consumer spending in the US be affected? Consumer spending is the foundation of the US economy, accounting for over 70% of the GDP. Typically, an increase in unemployment, or even just fears of unemployment, can lead to a reduction in household spending. This sentiment often becomes the catalyst that shifts the economy from “slowdown” to “recession.”
The data released on September 5th also showed that the US unemployment rate had slightly risen from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching the highest level since the end of 2021. While US consumer spending has maintained resilience thus far, many experts have predicted a slowdown in US consumption for the remainder of 2025, especially pronounced among middle to low-income households.
The weak job growth and rising unemployment rate in the US will also become a major topic in the political gamesmanship, affecting the direction of policies from both parties in the future.
Having covered the employment and economic situation in the US, let’s shift focus to Europe and examine the latest situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield.
On September 7th, Sunday, Ukrainian officials stated that Russia launched its largest-scale air raid on Ukraine since the outbreak of war, resulting in 4 deaths and 44 injuries. Russian forces also targeted a government building in the capital, Kyiv, causing it to catch fire.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 805 drones and 13 missiles at Ukraine during the night, with Ukrainian forces shooting down 751 drones and intercepting 4 missiles. However, 54 drones and 9 missiles hit various targets in Ukraine.
This marks the largest drone attack by Russian forces on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion launched in February 2022.
The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported that the attack in the capital injured over 20 people, with Kyiv and its surrounding areas under continuous air raid sirens for over 11 hours.
Shortly after dawn, Reuters reporters witnessed thick smoke rising from the top floor of a government building in the historical Pechersk district, which caught fire. In other parts of Kyiv, residential buildings were attacked and damaged, with dozens of residents huddling in blankets on outdoor streets while rescue personnel worked tirelessly to extinguish fires in apartment buildings.
Moreover, in the central city of Kremenchuk, there were dozens of explosions on Sunday night, leading to power outages for some residents and damaging a bridge spanning the Dnieper River.
Officials in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih also reported Russian attacks on the city’s transportation and infrastructure, with no reports of casualties.
In the southern city of Odesa, civilian infrastructure and residential buildings were damaged, with fires breaking out.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the wave of drone and missile attacks by Russian forces resulted in 4 deaths and inflicted damage across northern, southern, and eastern regions of Ukraine, including cities like Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, as well as the Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
Zelenskyy posted on the X platform, expressing, “Real diplomatic negotiations could have started long ago, but now the bloodshed is happening, it is premeditated crimes, extending the war.” He once again called on allies to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.
The Ukrainian military mentioned that Ukrainian forces struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in the Bryansk region of Russia on Sunday night, causing a massive fire and widespread destruction.
The current military strategy of the Ukrainian armed forces is to target Russian oil pipelines and refineries in a series of continuous attacks to weaken Russia’s primary financial resources to sustain the war.
President Trump’s stance towards Russia is becoming increasingly firm. On Sunday, Trump told White House reporters that he was ready to implement the second phase of sanctions against Russia, though he did not disclose specific details.
US Treasury Secretary Benson stated on Sunday that additional economic pressure from the US and Europe could prompt Russian President Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine.
Benson stated in an NBC “Meet the Press” program, “If the US and the EU could intervene, impose more sanctions and levies secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, Russia’s economy will collapse entirely, forcing President Putin to the negotiating table.”
Benson indicated that the Trump administration was prepared to intensify pressure on Russia, hoping European allies would follow suit. He likened the current situation to a contest, where the endurance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the Russian economy is pitted against each other.
Oil and natural gas are Russia’s major export commodities. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating, China, India, and Turkey have become major customers for Russian oil. If the US and Europe jointly impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, it will deliver a heavy blow to these three countries as their exports to the US and Europe will face high tariffs. On August 27th, the US already raised tariffs to 50% on India for purchasing Russian oil.
On September 4th, President Trump urged European leaders to cease purchasing Russian oil, emphasizing that Russia had sold 1.1 billion euros worth of fuel to the EU within a year. According to a White House official speaking to AP, Trump emphasized that European leaders must exert economic pressure on China to reduce purchases of Russian oil.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko told The Washington Post, “Sunday’s brutal assault proves that we must stop Russia from running this war machine on revenues from oil and gas, at all costs.”
Sviridenko stated, “We appreciate President Trump’s swift response and strong signal for preparing to impose secondary sanctions on Russia. This decision is crucial for Ukraine as our people are facing the ever-expanding blows from Russia daily. We hope this decision will take effect soon.”
From the soft job growth in the US to the urgent anticipation of Fed rate cuts, from the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to President Trump’s tough stance on Russia, the global economic and geopolitical landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. These events not only affect the policies of various countries but will also profoundly change our lives and futures.
In the coming period, the Ukraine-Russia situation, US economy, and Fed decisions will continue to captivate global attention. We will continue to track the latest developments and provide in-depth analysis.