Analysis: Chaos in New Caledonia, French Territory, Possibly Shadowed by CCP

Last week, the French territory of New Caledonia in the South Pacific witnessed the most severe unrest in 30 years. French media reports indicate that while the turmoil is related to electoral systems, there are fears of the looming shadow of the Chinese Communist Party behind the events. Over the years, the CCP has been expanding its influence in the region, attempting to replace France.

Recent reports from various media sources state that the French Parliament has approved a constitutional amendment to broaden the voter base in New Caledonia, allowing all local residents and those who have lived in the territory for over 10 years to have voting rights in provincial elections. Indigenous leaders believe that this move will dilute the voting power and political influence of the native Kanak people, sparking the beginning of the unrest.

In the capital, Noumea, clashes erupted between protesters, the military, and police, leading to the destruction of buildings and vehicles. So far, the violence has resulted in six deaths, hundreds injured, and over two hundred arrests. The French government declared a 12-day state of emergency starting from 5 a.m. on May 15.

The Ministry of the Interior in France has deployed approximately 1,000 additional officers to join the 1,800 already present in the region. A curfew is in place in Noumea, major airports have suspended civilian flights, gatherings, carrying weapons, and selling alcoholic beverages are prohibited, yet this has not prevented further unrest over the weekend.

Authorities, however, claim that the situation is improving. Following six nights of violent turmoil, the French military launched a “major operation” on Sunday (19th) aimed at regaining control of a major highway connecting Noumea to the main international airport in New Caledonia.

French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin stated that over 600 fully armed French gendarmes are working to regain control of this 60-kilometer-long highway to facilitate the reopening of the airport.

Since the onset of the unrest, flights to and from the main island of New Caledonia have been canceled, leaving an estimated 3,200 tourists stranded and trade routes disrupted. Countries like Australia and New Zealand are awaiting permission from France to evacuate the stranded tourists.

New Caledonia, a French Pacific island, not only holds strategic importance but is also one of the few nickel-producing regions in the world, accounting for 20% to 30% of global nickel resources. Over the years, the CCP has continuously expanded its influence in the region.

A recent analysis by Radio France Internationale (RFI) on the 16th highlighted the keen interest of the CCP in the unrest in New Caledonia. For years, the CCP has been closely monitoring the political struggles in the region, with hopes of replacing France. French media often use terms like “Chinese shadow” or “Chinese phantom” to describe the clandestine efforts of the CCP to expand its influence.

The article suggests that apart from an interest in New Caledonia’s nickel resources, another reason for the CCP’s actions is its attempt to maximize its influence in the Pacific region in the ongoing oceanic rivalry with the United States, aiming to counter the encirclement by the US and its allies such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Since the mid-19th century, New Caledonia has been a French territory. With a population of around 300,000, the indigenous Kanak people constitute 42%, followed by Europeans at 30%, and Polynesians at 11%.

According to the 1998 Noumea Accord reached between the French government and local residents, only those who settled in the archipelago before 1998 and their descendants have voting rights in provincial and French parliamentary elections in New Caledonia; however, over 40,000 French nationals have migrated to the territory since 1998.