Pakistan’s Punjab province recently faced one of the most severe floods in decades, with over 2,000 villages submerged and more than 2 million people affected. Approximately 760,000 people and 516,000 livestock have been evacuated, with at least 33 deaths occurring in less than a week.
The disaster has not only led to a severe humanitarian crisis but also poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s already fragile economy.
The floods have destroyed vast agricultural lands, causing extensive damage to rice, sugarcane, corn, vegetables, and cotton fields. Farmers and exporters have warned that the impact on agriculture could be devastating.
Ibrahim Shafiq, export manager of Latif Rice Mills, told Reuters, “We were expecting a bountiful rice harvest this year. Rice was expected to be priced at 3,200 to 3,600 rupees (approximately $11.3 to $12.7) per 40 kilograms, but flood damage could push prices up to 5,000 to 5,500 rupees (approximately $17.7 to $19.4).”
He cautioned that this price increase would lead to higher costs for domestic consumers and hinder Pakistan’s rice competitiveness in the international market against India.
The loss of cotton further threatens the textile industry, which accounts for over half of Pakistan’s exports, with the United States being the largest market facing a 19% tariff pressure.
Agricultural technology company Farmdar pointed out that with extensive flooded farmlands along the rivers, losses could “expand exponentially.”
Ghasharib Shoukat, co-founder of the commodity platform Zarai Mandi, also warned that shortages of wheat, vegetables, and cotton would disrupt the supply chain, impacting exports and household budgets.
This disaster comes at a sensitive economic moment. Over the past year, Pakistan’s inflation rate has gradually declined, with food inflation soaring to over 50% in 2023 but dropping to 4.1% in July.
However, officials anticipate a rise in inflation to 4% to 5% in August, with food shortages already driving up prices. Analysts warn that delays in wheat planting, reduced rice exports, and forced cotton imports will further exacerbate price pressures.
Experts indicate that the cost of rebuilding homes and restoring farms could amount to billions of rupees.
Aamer Hayat Bhandara, a farmer and activist, emphasized, “Farmers sow the food that feeds everyone. If they are abandoned during disasters, the entire country will suffer.”
As all three major rivers in Pakistan are flooding, with many main dams nearing full capacity and more rainfall expected, the authorities in Punjab have set up 511 rescue camps, 351 medical points, and 321 veterinary facilities. Over 15,000 police officers have been deployed across the region to assist in disaster relief.