China is preparing to hold its decennial “9.3 Parade,” a highly anticipated event intended to project military might and solidify leadership. However, a deep analysis by the BBC Chinese website reveals that this meticulously planned political show is riddled with hidden crises. The article points to a severe personnel crisis within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) following extensive purges, the regime’s growing international isolation from its Western allies, and a powerful pushback from Taiwan over the CCP’s attempts to rewrite history.
The BBC Chinese website outlines four key takeaways, exposing the underlying power struggles and international isolation beneath the parade’s glitzy surface.
1. Who’s on the Stand, and Who Has “Vanished”?—A Barometer for Power Struggles
One of the most-watched aspects of this parade will be the lineup on the main viewing stand. Compared to a decade ago, the situation Xi Jinping faces is far more precarious. In recent years, several high-ranking “Xi’s Army” generals he personally promoted—including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu—have mysteriously “vanished.” This has sparked a new wave of speculation about the stability of Xi’s power. Who appears on the Tiananmen Gate tower and who is absent will be a direct indicator of the CCP’s top-level power structure and the stability of its military.
2. A Growing Nuclear Arsenal and “Intelligent Warfare”—Signaling a Threat of Conflict
In terms of military hardware, while new equipment like the J-35 stealth fighter is expected to debut, the main focus remains on China’s strategic nuclear strike capability. According to Western think tanks, Beijing is expanding its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented pace, with an estimated deployment of over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
The Pentagon’s annual report has also warned that if the CCP regime faces a “severe threat” to its survival during a Taiwan Strait conflict, it would very likely consider using nuclear weapons first. Additionally, learning from the experience of the Russia-Ukraine War, “intelligent warfare” equipment—such as drones, anti-drone systems, and electronic warfare gear—will be a major highlight of this parade.
3. Western Allies Are Absent, Leaving Putin as the Sole Star—A Bleak Diplomatic Stage
On the diplomatic front, this year’s parade appears particularly bleak. A decade ago, leaders from Western-aligned countries, including then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye, attended. This year, however, as US-China relations have plummeted, no Western head of state has confirmed attendance. The only person likely to show up for Xi is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also has an international arrest warrant issued against him. In contrast, some Southeast Asian nations might send higher-level leaders, possibly swayed by the economic incentives of China’s “Belt and Road” initiative, which underscores the global trend of countries being forced to pick a side.
4. Taiwan’s Firm Rejection and Defense of Historical Truth—A Point of No Return
Compared to the “cross-strait honeymoon” of ten years ago, when figures like Lien Chan attended the parade on Tiananmen Gate, the current situation in the Taiwan Strait is fundamentally different. Taiwan’s government has not only explicitly banned public officials from attending the parade in mainland China but has also forcefully pushed back against the CCP’s attempts to “appropriate the victory of the War of Resistance.” Taiwan’s government continues to reiterate that the war was led by the Republic of China, which existed before the People’s Republic of China was even founded. Analysts suggest that if Western predictions of a CCP invasion of Taiwan in 2027 are correct, this parade could be the last major military review before an attack, and Taiwanese authorities will be closely gathering intelligence.