The upcoming September 3rd military parade by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has sparked curiosity as to who will be the overall commander, with speculations abound regarding internal power struggles. Reports suggest that due to infighting between Xi Jinping’s faction and the anti-Xi faction, Beijing has devised three contingency plans for the military parade.
Traditionally, the position of overall commander for the military parade in Beijing is held by the commander of the Central Theater Command. The current commander of the Central Theater Command is believed to be Wang Qiang, with Xu Deqing as the political commissar. However, their simultaneous absence from the celebration of Army Day hosted by the CCP’s Ministry of National Defense on July 31st has led to speculations of their whereabouts.
Former Deputy Colonel of the Chinese Navy, Yao Cheng, stated on August 24th via social media that there are rumors of Wang Qiang, the current commander of the Central Theater Command, facing trouble, while the deputy commander Li Zhizhong is under investigation. In such a scenario, it is likely that Liu Zhenli, the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department, a confidant of the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, might be appointed to lead the military parade.
Yao Cheng also mentioned that some have suggested that the Minister of the Ministry of National Defense, Dong Jun, could also assume the role of overall commander for the military parade, as he holds a similar rank to the commander of the Central Theater Command. Although Dong Jun does not have experience in commanding troops, the position of overall commander for the military parade is more ceremonial and can be handled competently by him. However, there is a lack of trust between Zhang Youxia and Dong Jun, as Dong Jun was originally aligned with the disgraced former Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, Miao Hua.
Recently, during Xi Jinping’s visit to Tibet, Zhang Youxia did not accompany him; instead, the member of the Military Commission, Zhang Shengmin, was by his side.
Yao Cheng highlighted that there have been three rehearsals for the military parade in Beijing, and in principle, the overall commander should oversee the entire situation. If the Central Theater Command lacks a commander, then Zhang Youxia might be deliberately delaying the appointment of an overall commander to embarrass Xi Jinping.
On August 18th, Yao Cheng also revealed that the military parade on September 3rd is crucial for the CCP, especially with the ongoing power struggle between Xi Jinping’s faction and the anti-Xi faction, creating a high level of instability. Information obtained from a retired military officer at the Beijing Military Commission Headquarters indicates that a contingency plan has been devised by the command headquarters for the military parade. Analysis suggests that there will be three contingency plans for the upcoming military parade in Beijing.
The first plan involves Xi Jinping leading the military parade. The second plan outlines Zhang Youxia stepping in if Xi Jinping is unable to take part due to health concerns. The third plan involves a compromise candidate, Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission and the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department, replacing Xi Jinping or Zhang Youxia if necessary.
Yao Cheng further analyzed that the CCP intended to showcase its military might to the world while also projecting stability in governance. Any issues arising during the military parade could potentially endanger the CCP’s ruling position and power, even leading to divisions within the military.
Independent commentator Du Zheng, in an article for Taiwan’s “United Daily News” on August 23rd, suggested that Liu Zhenli, the Chief of Staff of the Military Commission, might be appointed as the supreme commander of the military parade in Beijing. If Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia takes charge, given recent speculations of him consolidating power, it could lead to further external speculations.
Du Zheng expressed concerns that the delayed announcement of the overall commander for the military parade signifies turmoil within the military personnel. According to his analysis, out of the 79 generals promoted since Xi Jinping’s tenure, 26 individuals, accounting for over 30% of the total promoted, have been associated with rumors of downfall or dismissal.
Du Zheng concluded that the grand military parade in Beijing in September is essentially a political performance, with the glitter of the parade unable to veil the intense power struggles within the CCP’s armed forces.