China’s economy continues to decline, with the worsening unemployment issue. The latest data shows that in July, the official youth unemployment rate (aged 16-24) in the country reached its highest level in 11 months. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials claim it to be a “seasonal increase.” However, scholars argue that the ongoing economic downturn is a reality, and with official data manipulation involved, the future unemployment situation is expected to worsen under various influences.
On August 19, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released data on unemployment rates by age group, showing that the unemployment rate of the 16-24 age group excluding students recorded 17.8% in July, a 3.3% increase from June, and 0.7% higher than the same period in 2024, reaching the highest level since August last year.
Previously, on August 15, the Bureau announced that the urban survey unemployment rate for July and the unemployment rate in 31 large cities both rose to 5.2%, hitting a four-month high.
The survey unemployment rate refers to the percentage of unemployed people calculated based on sampling methods compared to the total employed and unemployed population.
American economist David Wong stated to the Epoch Times that the CCP uses small samples of data collection to estimate, probably surveying 20,000 to 50,000 young people’s job statuses, which he says, lacks significant reference value. “They may go to companies to do surveys, but most companies surveyed are fully staffed, so the data isn’t convincing. Many unemployed youths don’t actively seek jobs or participate in surveys.”
Wong believes that the actual unemployment rate on the mainland could be as high as over 30%.
The CCP has publicly “optimised” the youth unemployment rate figures, indicating that the actual data may be even worse.
The youth unemployment rate in China hit monthly record highs in the first half of 2023, reaching 21.3% in June of that year. However, the National Bureau of Statistics subsequently suspended the release of this data, being dubbed as a “bluff.”
In January 2024, the official figures following the “optimisation” excluded students looking for part-time jobs, focusing only on over 30 million young people leaving school and entering the job market seeking full-time employment. However, according to the International Labour Organization, excluding students from the unemployment rate calculation does not align with their measurement standards. As long as students keep looking for work, even full-time students would fall within the employment statistics.
After the official “optimisation,” the unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group in December 2023 significantly dropped to 14.9%, further decreasing to 14.6% in January 2024, maintaining around 15% for the past year.
Regarding data falsification, Wu Sezhi of the Taiwan Think Tank on China Issues stated that this is a result of the CCP’s centralized political system. Due to the lack of transparency, civil society forces are unable to counterbalance the government, allowing officials to manipulate figures freely. This indicates that the social economy is indeed facing significant problems, more severe than what is officially announced.
Sun Guoxiang, a professor at the National Taiwan University’s Department of International Affairs and Business, stated that the CCP’s practice of hiding or adjusting unemployment data could lead to more significant problems in the future, potentially causing a crisis of trust between the government and the private sector.
Many bloggers on Chinese social media platforms have lamented being unemployed.
On August 20, one blogger stated, “Complained to friends recently, only to find out they are also struggling, all unemployed.”
Another blogger mentioned, “I have been unemployed for 107 days, searched for a job today but couldn’t find one. It’s scorching hot, nearly got heatstroke, came back and laid down. September is coming, still no job in sight, seems like I’m the only one left, feeling overwhelmed.”
Thousands of comments from netizens across the country expressed similar sentiments: “Unable to sleep all night due to unemployment.”
“Count me in, where are you located?”
“I’ve been unemployed for nine months, searching for a job every day, but just can’t find a suitable one. Retirement age, alas!”
“I’m also unemployed, not working. Now relying on my husband for support.”
“Staying at home for too long, feeling that no job is suitable, anxious and lost at home.”
“I haven’t been to work since April 1, it’s been almost five months of unemployment.”
The spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Fu Linghui, claimed in a press conference that in July, the overall employment situation…
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