Following the Beidaihe Conference, senior leaders of the CCP including Xi Jinping have gradually appeared in public. Today, the CCP officially announced preparations for the September 3rd military parade, unprecedentedly calling for “loyalty to the core,” among other things. Scholars have released the “Four-point Consensus of the Beidaihe Conference,” indicating that Xi Jinping will temporarily maintain his core position unchanged but will not continue to serve more terms. Analysts believe that there is currently a fog shrouding the situation in Zhongnanhai, and the outcome of internal struggles within the CCP is still under observation.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping arrived in Lhasa on August 20th to attend the 60th anniversary celebrations of the CCP’s occupation of Tibet. Wang Huning and Cai Qi also arrived on the same plane.
In addition, the CCP will hold a military parade on September 3rd. The State Council Information Office of the CCP held a press conference at 10 a.m. today to introduce the preparations for the military parade. Major General Wu Zeke, Deputy Director of the Office of the Leading Group for the Military Parade of the CCP and Deputy Director of the Operations Department of the Joint Staff of the Central Military Commission, emphasized the military’s “consistent loyalty to the core, support for the core, maintenance of the core, and defense of the core,” and mentioned “Chairman Xi” multiple times.
Independent scholar Wu Zuolai told Dajiyuan that this could be a ploy by Xi Jinping’s faction to garner support, as he has received information that currently, Xi Jinping is still to remain as the core to maintain political stability. “At least until the 21st Party Congress, Xi Jinping’s core status will remain unchanged, but this show of support seems excessive, possibly indicating ulterior motives.”
According to information released by the CCP Ministry of Foreign Affairs on August 1st, the press conference recess period was from August 4th to August 15th, with a resumption on August 18th. It is speculated that this period was the secretive time of the Beidaihe Conference, where senior CCP officials and retired elders went to Beidaihe for vacation. The gradual reappearance of senior CCP officials signifies the end of the Beidaihe Conference.
On August 15, Wu Zuolai exclusively released the “Four-point Consensus of the Beidaihe Conference” on his personal channel “Man Mountain Talks”:
The first point is to maintain the stability of the CCP Central Committee, allowing Xi Jinping to continue in his position as the highest leader while maintaining consistency in propaganda, but not allowing excessive personality cult in propaganda.
The second point is that Xi Jinping must not continue serving more terms. The third point is the relative decentralization of party, government, and military powers. The fourth point is that the Party Central Committee coordinating mechanism is responsible for coordinating the work related to the Fourth Plenary Session and starting preparations for the 21st Congress.
Wu Zuolai said that this work has actually begun earlier, for example, with Shi Taifeng replacing Li Ganjie as the head of the Organization Department.
Political commentator Tang Jingyuan told Dajiyuan that the CCP is currently facing two major events: the military parade and the Fourth Plenary Session in October, with the latter being more significant.
However, he believes that determining who presides over the military parade to confirm who truly controls military power is not accurate because the parade is merely a ceremonial event. “Who conducts the military parade does not necessarily mean that they fully control military power. For example, during Hu Jintao’s tenure, although he presided over a military parade, the military power was not in his hands but rather under Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou. During his ten years in office, his military power was constantly overshadowed by these two key figures from the Jiang faction.”
Tang Jingyuan believes that the focus should be on the Fourth Plenary Session, as it may involve significant personnel changes, such as changes in important positions of real power, which can serve as an indicator of whether Xi Jinping truly holds power.
Current affairs commentator Li Linyi told Dajiyuan that the CCP’s recent crackdown on high-ranking officials has become increasingly secretive, indicating more intense power struggles than before. Particularly concerning Xi Jinping’s power, deliberate smoke screens have been created, resulting in a foggy situation in Zhongnanhai. The outcome of internal power struggles within the CCP is still to be observed. However, as the collapse of the former Soviet Union came as a surprise to Western observers, history has shown that oppressive regimes are destined to fall, and this principle applies to China as well.