In recent days, the Chinese and Russian navies conducted a joint military exercise in the Far East region with the codename “Maritime Joint-2025”, focusing on anti-submarine warfare. Simultaneously, the US military deployed two nuclear submarines near Russian waters, seen as a response to Russia’s previous nuclear threat rhetoric. Defense and security experts have analyzed the strategic games among China, Russia, and the US highlighted by these developments.
According to the Chinese military newspaper, on the afternoon of August 5th, the participating Chinese and Russian naval formations in the “Maritime Joint-2025” exercise completed all maritime exercises as planned and began joint maritime patrols from August 6th.
Official reports state that the “Maritime Joint-2025” exercise took place in Russian waters in the Far East region from August 1st to 5th, focusing on anti-submarine warfare with simulated search and destroy exercises against enemy submarines.
Following the exercise, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday, August 6th, that the two navies carried out joint patrols to deepen military cooperation, signaling a normalization of joint actions between China and Russia in regional security affairs.
During the Chinese-Russian military exercise, US President Trump announced on August 1st the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to former Russian President Medvedev’s nuclear threat statements. Trump issued a ultimatum to Russian President Putin to agree to end the conflict in Ukraine within a specified timeline, threatening severe sanctions against Russia and its oil buyers, which could possibly affect China.
The deployment of US nuclear submarines is interpreted by experts as the latest move in the ongoing intense strategic competition between the US and Russia over the Ukraine issue.
Director Su Ziyun of the Strategic and Resource Institute at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security noted that the joint military exercise between China and Russia shows clear strategic targeting. The expansion of anti-submarine exercises and the training goal of “sinking enemy submarines” directly respond to US naval nuclear deterrence capabilities, indicating that military cooperation between China and Russia has evolved from the tactical level to strategic collaboration in response to Western military pressure.
Su Ziyun further assessed that international military confrontations are approaching a “critical point”. With NATO member countries increasing defense budgets and the military-industrial sector revitalizing, it indicates an end to the post-Cold War “peace dividend”. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not resolved as expected by Washington, global military standoffs may escalate further.
However, regarding the US statement on the deployment of nuclear submarines, Hong Zijie, Director of the Institute of Chinese Communist Party Military and Operational Concepts at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security, told the media that the US response is more targeted at specific Russian remarks rather than a signal for comprehensive confrontation. He emphasized that further observation is needed regarding the actual deployment, especially in relation to the ceasefire deadline on August 8th between Ukraine and Russia.
According to Chinese state media Xinhua, the joint maritime exercise between China and Russia is themed on “responding to security threats in the Western Pacific”. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang emphasized that the exercise is not targeted at any third party and is unrelated to the current international and regional situation.
Despite China’s emphasis that the exercise is defensive and not targeting any specific country, its scale and exercise setup undoubtedly trigger wide-ranging strategic speculations among observers.
Su Ziyun believes that US strategic goals are shifting towards countering China’s rise. If the Ukraine conflict can be resolved in a controlled manner, the US may gradually lift sanctions against Russia and fully focus on competition with China, leading to a more apparent military confrontation trend between the US and China, where Russia’s strategic choices will become a critical variable.
Regarding the capability of China and Russia to pose a substantial threat to US nuclear submarines, Su Ziyun provided a professional assessment: the stealth performance of US nuclear submarines represents the highest global standard, limiting the ability of China and Russia to pose a substantive threat to US naval nuclear forces.
Hong Zijie made an overall assessment of the current situation, stating, “Although the depth of military cooperation between China and Russia has increased, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that they have entered a higher-intensity confrontation phase with the West. All parties should remain strategically vigilant, but there are no significant signs of a qualitative upgrade in overall military confrontation.”