The Taiwan’s Academia Sinica Institute of Sociology recently held a forum discussing the influence of the Communist Party of China on Taiwan’s democratic system and its impact on the perception of Taiwanese people. Researcher Lin Zonghong presented a report titled “Chinese Disinformation: From Online to Offline – An Initial Exploration of the CCP’s Unification Front Network towards Taiwan” at the event. Lin analyzed how false online information from the CCP is disseminated offline and how the CCP wields influence in Taiwan.
Lin Zonghong highlighted three authoritarian ruling strategies employed by the CCP, including military intimidation, ideological deception, and the purchase of economic benefits and unification resources. The hypothesis of the study suggested that the dissemination of CCP-favorable (false) information relies on the performance of physical networks and resource injection. This implies that false information can be traced back to physical networks in Taiwan, and the construction of these networks relies on frequent interaction and bribery.
In estimating and measuring the CCP’s influence on Taiwan’s physical network, Lin Zonghong explained the method used to identify entities acknowledged by the Taiwan Affairs Office and collected over thirty thousand news releases from their official website. They focused on more than three thousand releases post-2018 that pertained to entities or individuals related to Taiwan, ultimately identifying 959 news items involving active participants.
Analyzing and categorizing these 959 news items led to the identification of 6,185 physical entities that appeared in the Taiwan Affairs Office news releases. By defining various activity relationships, they discovered 13,753 linking relationships.
Moreover, Lin Zonghong noted that they found a total of 2,234 nodes corresponding to Taiwan entities that had contact with CCP units, participated in activities, or were local collaborators. Among these nodes, there were 962 “entry points” through which CCP’s unification units made contact with Taiwan. Regarding these Taiwan nodes, 1,322 entities with registered addresses were identified, with 535 entry points having registered addresses.
Furthermore, by understanding the addresses of 1,322 activity entities that have contact with the CCP, the researchers aimed to determine if the presence of more unification units in a specific region of Taiwan led to changes in voting behavior during elections. This preliminary study was conducted through database analysis.
Lin Zonghong also referenced a 2024 Taiwan Social Intention Survey by the Taiwan Academia Sinica Institute of Sociology. The survey revealed that in areas with a higher concentration of unification nodes, support for democracy among respondents decreased significantly.
In addition, Lin Zonghong shared findings based on analyzing voting results from 368 townships. In regions with more unification nodes, there was a significant increase in votes for the Kuomintang Party (KMT) and a notable decrease in votes for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
The research also identified that the top 10% of unification contact points and networks were predominantly concentrated in specific areas like Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taichung City, Hsinchu and Zhubei, selected regions of Taoyuan City, Hualien County, and parts of Kaohsiung City during former Mayor Han Kuo-yu’s term. The high-contact frequency was observed with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), pro-CCP conglomerates like the Want Want Group (comprising China Television, China Times), traditional left-wing organizations, and religious groups engaged in extensive exchanges with mainland China.
Lin Zonghong emphasized that their research indicated a significant loss in support for the DPP during the 2024 presidential election compared to the Kuomintang Party in areas with more unification nodes.
He pointed out the importance and utility of studying this issue, advocating for the transparency and public availability of research data to effectively counter the CCP’s influence. He expressed his hope for establishing a database on CCP’s unification front activities towards Taiwan. Moreover, Lin Zonghong highlighted the potential deterrence effect on Taiwanese politicians participating in unification activities, particularly during recall periods, citing that aside from former President Ma Ying-jeou, no other Kuomintang legislators dared to engage in the Cross-Strait Forum.