On May 15th, Russian President Putin visited Beijing.
This visit marks Putin’s first overseas trip after starting his fifth presidential term, the second visit to China in seven months, his 23rd visit to Beijing since taking office, and the 43rd meeting with Xi since they both assumed power.
Putin’s visit comes against the backdrop of Russia’s over two-year-long war in Ukraine, which has left Russia internationally isolated. Putin urgently needs the Chinese Communist Party to provide support to his war machine.
Following the meeting between Putin and Xi on May 16th, a statement was issued condemning the U.S. deployment of missile systems in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe as a direct threat to Russia and China’s security. Moscow and Beijing pledged to deepen military cooperation.
From the statements released by the Russian side, it is clear that Putin aims to further tie China to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, not only strengthening economic ties but also military relations between the two nations.
For the Chinese Communist Party, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it has been the most significant supporter of Russia’s war machine and will likely continue to provide assistance in the future.
So, what will the Chinese Communist Party gain from Putin’s high-profile visit to China? There may be four main “harvests”:
The fundamental guidance of China’s diplomacy is Marxism-Leninism. Opposing and subverting the capitalist system is a basic tenet of Marxism-Leninism. As long as China adheres to Marxism-Leninism, it will continue to treat capitalist America as an enemy.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. has repeatedly warned China not to provide military support to Russia. However, China’s actions have not aligned with its words.
According to a list released by the U.S. in April this year, 90% of the chips imported by Russia by 2023 came from China and were used in the production of missiles, tanks, and aircraft. In the last quarter of last year, 70% of the machine tools imported by Russia came from China and could potentially be used in the production of ballistic missiles.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Beijing last month included a crucial objective: warning China not to provide military assistance to Russia and stating that “if China (the CCP) does not act, the United States will.”
Although the Chinese Communist Party still verbally denies providing military aid to Russia, based on its adherence to Marxism-Leninism, past actions, and Putin’s visit to China, it is certain that China will continue to provide support to Russia, further deteriorating U.S.-China relations.
For the United States, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents the biggest challenge to America’s post-World War II leadership in the free world. If Ukraine were to lose the war, the international order shaped by the U.S. after World War II would be fundamentally altered, a scenario the U.S. cannot tolerate.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. has been the biggest military aid provider to Ukraine. On April 23rd, the U.S. Senate passed a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine.
While providing military aid to Ukraine, the U.S. has also imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. According to data released by the Russian satellite communications agency on January 22, 2024, the U.S. has imposed 3,500 sanctions on Russia. On February 23rd, over 500 additional sanctions were added.
On May 1st, the U.S. imposed sanctions on 22 Chinese companies for helping Russia “obtain urgently needed technology and equipment from abroad.” So far, the Biden administration has sanctioned over 341 Chinese companies, surpassing previous U.S. administrations.
President Biden not only maintained the tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Chinese goods worth over $300 billion but also escalated tariffs on key products further.
On May 14th, the White House announced an increase in tariffs on goods worth about $18 billion annually imported from China – steel and aluminum products increased from 0-7.5% to 25%, semiconductors from 25% to 50%, solar panels from 25% to 50%, and electric vehicles from 25% to 100%.
The Wall Street Journal reported on April 23rd that the U.S. is drafting possible sanctions that could cut off some Chinese banks from the global financial system.
Following Putin’s high-profile visit to China, the U.S. is likely to intensify its sanctions against China.
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most significant security threat Europe has faced since World War II, the European Union has shifted to a full hostile relationship with Russia since the outbreak of the war. This includes not only economic disconnection but also 13 rounds of sanctions against Russia.
On March 18th, the European Council allocated an additional €5 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Data released by the EU shows that since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, the EU and its member states have provided or pledged over €138 billion in assistance to Ukraine, with €28 billion designated for military support.
On February 23rd, the EU implemented its 13th round of sanctions against Russia, adding 88 entities and 106 individuals to the list of those prohibited from traveling to the EU or doing business in the EU. Prior to this, about 2,000 individuals and companies had been listed on the EU’s sanctions list in 12 previous rounds.
Currently, China is trying to balance its relations with both the EU and Russia, but attempting to appease both sides simultaneously is proving challenging. Continuing to support Russia’s war machine will hinder any breakthrough in Sino-European relations.
The EU’s 13th round of sanctions against Russia included four Chinese companies, three from mainland China and one from Hong Kong.
Since May 2021, the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the EU has been frozen. The agreement has been suspended for three years now with little hope of being revived.
Given China’s dumping of electric vehicles in Europe, the EU launched an anti-subsidy investigation against Chinese electric cars in October last year. Following the U.S.’s lead, the EU may consider imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
On May 10th, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC) stated that the proportion of European companies considering investing in China has reached an all-time low.
Following Putin’s high-profile visit, Sino-European relations are unlikely to stabilize but are expected to continue deteriorating.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, over 100 countries at the United Nations have supported Ukraine and opposed Russia, including historically neutral countries like Sweden and Switzerland.
One of Russia’s excuses for invading Ukraine is to stop NATO’s eastward expansion. However, since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Finland and Sweden quickly applied to join NATO. On April 4th, 2023, Finland became the 31st member of NATO, expanding the NATO-Russia border by 1,340 kilometers to a total of 2,550 kilometers.
On February 26th of this year, the Hungarian Parliament approved Sweden’s application to join NATO. With this approval, the last obstacle to Sweden joining NATO has been removed, and Sweden is set to become the 32nd member of NATO. Sweden had followed a neutral policy for over 200 years and had reduced its army by 90%, air force by 70%, and navy after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russia-Ukraine war has awakened Sweden.
With 31 NATO countries and Sweden awaiting approval for NATO membership, all support Ukraine.
Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. established a Defense Contact Group led by U.S. Defense Secretary Austin, involving over 50 countries working closely with the Ukrainian military to identify and meet its emergency needs.
The U.S. also formed a “Capability Alliance” – groups composed of allies and partners dedicated to meeting Ukraine’s critical defense needs. Denmark, the Netherlands, and the U.S. are responsible for the air force alliance; Estonia and Luxembourg for the information technology alliance; Norway and the U.K. for the maritime security alliance.
Japan, South Korea, Australia, and even long-term Russian partner India are all supporting Ukraine in different ways.
Continuing to provide aid to Russia’s war machine will effectively make China an adversary to all countries supporting Ukraine and further isolate China on the international stage.
According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, in 2023, the total trade volume between China and the U.S. was $664.451 billion. China exported $500.291 billion to the U.S., while importing $164.16 billion from the U.S.
Despite ongoing tensions in recent years, the U.S. remains China’s largest customer. Logically, China should prioritize maintaining positive relations with the U.S., but instead, China views the U.S. as its primary enemy. This stance is unacceptable to many rational Chinese people.
In modern times, the U.S. has not occupied an inch of Chinese territory, while Russia has taken the most Chinese land. Logically, China should prioritize developing relations with the U.S. over Russia due to these factors. However, China considers the U.S. its biggest enemy and Russia its best friend, a viewpoint many rational Chinese people cannot accept.
In recent history, China has suffered from aggression, and its people have firsthand experience of the pain caused by war and invasion. Yet, the Chinese Communist Party not only fails to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but also becomes the largest supporter of Russia’s war machine. This stance is unacceptable to many rational Chinese people.
The Chinese Communist Party often states its commitment to protecting national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security. However, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia annexed four eastern Ukrainian provinces – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – totaling 15% of Ukraine’s territory. This annexation represents the largest territorial seizure in Europe since World War II, yet China has failed to condemn Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security, a stance that many rational Chinese people find unacceptable.
Russia boasts being the world’s top nuclear power and the second military power. Initially expecting a swift victory in Ukraine, the Russia-Ukraine war has now persisted for over two years, indicating a strategic failure for Russia in the conflict. The question remains: Can Russia defeat Ukraine?
Feng Yujun, a Russia expert at Peking University, asserted in an article in The Economist on April 11th titled “Russia’s Certain Defeat in Ukraine” that even Russia’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons cannot guarantee victory. Feng provided four reasons why Ukraine is poised to win: the resilience and national cohesion of the Ukrainian people, international aid, Russia’s shortcomings, and Putin’s lack of accurate information.
Feng Yujun’s view resonates with many rational Chinese people. However, the Chinese Communist Party persistently insists on viewing Russia as its best friend.
As a result, the Chinese Communist Party is tied to Putin’s war machine, further increasing the discontent and opposition of the Chinese people towards the Party.
Since Xi Jinping’s second term began, many observers both domestically and abroad have noticed that his numerous misjudgments and wrong decisions regarding domestic and foreign policies have put the Chinese Communist Party in an unprecedented comprehensive crisis.
Why does Xi Jinping make misjudgments and wrong decisions? In analyzing the Chinese Communist Party, it has been emphasized that the Party has the most blood debt and is responsible for the most deaths worldwide. With such a heavy historical burden, the Party has reached the end of history and is unable to objectively understand the world around it and make correct decisions. The result can only be a series of mistakes leading down a path of doom.
Translated and Rewritten by [Your Name]