On July 28th, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced the “National Child Rearing Subsidy Implementation Plan”. Starting from January 1, 2025, regardless of whether families have one child, two children, or three children, each child will be eligible to receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 RMB (Renminbi) until they reach the age of three. Will this modest monthly subsidy of 300 RMB truly alleviate the significant pressures that young Chinese families face in terms of childbearing and child rearing?
Several young people living in major cities have come forward to share their experiences, shedding light on the “life and death struggle of childbearing” that affects millions of families. Observers have analyzed that this policy shift by the Chinese government marks a transition from investing in goods to investing in people, aiming not only to boost the declining birth rate and economic vitality but also to achieve deeper objectives.
Blogger “Kan Jian” pointed out regarding the official “National Child Rearing Subsidy Implementation Plan” that China is currently facing a paradox: “Ten million newborns are considered few, while ten million college graduates are deemed too many.” He questioned why, if encouraging childbearing is for future labor force needs, there are millions of university graduates facing severe employment challenges each year.
He emphasized that the families of university students have invested 20 to 30 years of time, effort, and money in their education and should rightfully expect “decent jobs and reasonable salaries”. However, with the economic downturn and traditional industries like real estate facing challenges, employment opportunities are shrinking rather than increasing.
This dilemma is exemplified in the experiences of young people. The story of “Zhejiang University Humanities PhD ‘Ziran Juanjuan'” is a reflection of this situation: despite graduating from a top-tier university, she, at 30 years old, struggles to find employment opportunities. Larger companies where she used to have a chance to work are no longer hiring, and smaller companies view her high education level as low cost-effectiveness. She laments, “Why is it so hard to find a job now?”
The core logic behind the recent child rearing subsidy, according to blogger “Kan Jian,” is the government’s desire to stimulate consumption and boost the economy by encouraging ordinary people to have children. However, the deeper purpose lies in children being the “weak spot” of families and the best “social stability tool”.
He pointed out that non-parents are more likely to commit violent crimes than parents. In the context of China’s economic downturn, frequent social incidents, and increasing social stability costs, children act as a deterrent for adults, preventing them from causing trouble and thus “stabilizing societal expectations”. He believes that despite significant financial pressures, the government’s introduction of this subsidy demonstrates its emphasis on “maintaining social stability”.
According to “Kan Jian,” the 3,600 RMB subsidy per year is merely a drop in the bucket when it comes to stimulating childbirth; it is just a “trial” by the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership. He metaphorically likened the structure of Chinese society to a “pyramid”, with the top representing a few elites and the base comprising the majority of ordinary people. The stability of the “pyramid” relies on its base, the ordinary people.
In the ongoing “social game,” where ordinary people are positioned at the base, their biggest bargaining chip is “themselves”. If faced with this subsidy and choose not to have children, policies may be adjusted to increase the subsidy amount or extend the subsidy period. The blogger emphasized that the benefits obtained will depend on whether the base – the ordinary people – are united enough.
In conclusion, he stated: “Currently, it is not families that need children, but society and the elite who need children.”
The State Council of the Chinese Communist Party recently announced the gradual implementation of measures such as free preschool education. In the blogger’s view, this indicates that the “elite” are indeed feeling the urgency, giving ordinary people at the base a chance to gain greater benefits amid increasingly severe pressures of employment and livelihood. However, the ultimate outcome of this game remains uncertain.