The latest data shows that in June this year, the proportion of containers shipped from Asia to the United States originating from China fell below 50% for the fourth consecutive month.
According to a report by Nikkei Asia on July 23, the Japan Maritime Center released data on Tuesday, July 22, showing that the total number of containers shipped from Asia to the United States in June was approximately 1.68 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), a 7.3% decrease compared to the previous year.
In June, the transport volume from China was around 760,000 TEU, a decrease of 24.9%. China’s share in the total transportation volume in Asia was 45.3%, slightly lower than May’s 45.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50%. The average proportion for China from January to June was 50.4%, lower than the same period last year at 54.2%.
In 2024, the total shipping volume from Asia to the United States reached 21.44 million TEU, surpassing shipments to Europe and other routes from Asia, making it the largest trade route globally.
In both 2009 and 2014, Chinese containers accounted for 65.5% of the total maritime volume from Asia to the United States, reaching its peak. However, during President Trump’s first term, the U.S.-China trade war led to businesses relocating their production lines to Southeast Asia, resulting in a decline in China’s container share.
In President Trump’s second term, a tougher stance was taken against Beijing, with tariffs on China reaching as high as 145%. The tariff rate later dropped to 30%, but if negotiations between the two countries fail by the August 12 deadline, the tariff rate could rise again.
Southeast Asia has benefited from the shrinkage of China-US trade. In June, exports from Southeast Asia to the United States increased by 31.6% year-on-year. While Japan and South Korea saw their export shares decrease to 3.3% and 6.4% respectively, Southeast Asia’s market share rose to 33.2%. Particularly in Vietnam, its share increased to 18%. Vietnam became the first Asian country to reach a trade agreement with the United States on July 2, followed by Indonesia on July 15.
President Trump announced tariffs of 20% on Vietnam and 19% on Indonesia, lower than other countries. However, both agreements include clauses that could impact Chinese goods laundering.
Southeast Asian countries are taking advantage of this trend. Vinafco, a logistics company in Vietnam, ordered 750 TEU containers from the country’s largest steel manufacturer, Hoa Phat Group, in May, with deliveries starting in August.
With the real estate market in a long-term slump and domestic demand in China remaining weak, China is increasing production to boost the economy. However, if exports remain sluggish, the expanded surplus capacity may further suppress the economy, creating a vicious cycle. President Trump’s tariff measures could exacerbate this trend.
Takenori Igarashi, President of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, a Japanese shipping company, stated, “We are closely monitoring the freight situation in August as it is the peak season for container shipping before the Christmas shopping season.”
Takuma Matsuda, a professor at Kanagawa University, mentioned that while adjustments to container routes are underway, it is still unclear whether the US and China can reach a tariff agreement in August. He remarked that “the uncertainty of freight volume is increasing.”