The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced on Tuesday (July 21) that the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” in the United States Congress is projected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next ten years. This number is based on the revised forecast of the final version of the bill.
The non-partisan organization that provides fiscal information to Congress had previously estimated that the House version of the bill would increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion between 2025 and 2034.
After modifications were made to the bill in the Senate, the CBO raised its estimate to $3.3 trillion on June 29.
According to the latest statement from the CBO, the bill will reduce spending by $1.1 trillion but will also decrease government revenue by $4.5 trillion.
President Trump signed the bill on July 4, believing it is crucial for advancing his second-term policy agenda.
Democrats criticize the bill for making the Trump tax cuts of 2017 permanent, as these tax cuts were originally set to expire at the end of this year.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (Democratic Party, New York) took to social media on July 21, calling the bill “one big ugly bill” that prioritizes large-scale tax cuts for millionaires.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (Democratic Party, New York) stated on July 20, “Senate Republicans like to talk about fiscal responsibility, but their ‘big, ugly betrayal’ will only increase US debt by $4 trillion.”
Republicans argue that if the tax cuts are allowed to expire, most Americans will face tax increases.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (Republican, Louisiana) criticized the accuracy of the CBO’s predictions, claiming that the agency had previously overlooked key information in its analysis.
Scalise stated on June 4, “They have always ignored the impact of tax cuts on the US economic growth.”
Referring to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, he said, “CBO had predicted that the policy would lead to a $1.5 trillion decrease in revenue… In the end, their prediction was off by over $1.5 trillion.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt expressed that there is no concern about the projected increase in deficit.
She told reporters on July 21, “This is the largest tax cut policy in American history for the middle class and working families. The President aims to restore fiscal order in the United States. This is a fiscally responsible bill.”
According to a White House statement, the Council of Economic Advisers reported that if these tax cut provisions expire, the average taxpayer would face a 22% tax increase, totaling $4 trillion.
Republicans also argue that the CBO’s projections did not consider the negative impact on the economy if taxes were raised and ignored the benefits of maintaining low tax rates.
The CBO analysis indicates that the deficit will initially decrease by $21 billion in 2025, but will swiftly increase in the following two years, with the largest increase occurring in 2027, surpassing $600 billion.
According to data from the US Department of the Treasury, due to increased tariff revenue in June, there was a budget surplus of $27 billion.
This revenue helped reduce the deficit for the current fiscal year to $1.34 trillion, an improvement of 1% compared to the same period last year. The federal fiscal year ends on September 30.