The Communist Party of China’s Central Urban Work Conference, which has been dormant for 10 years, has been reopened, with officials outlining seven key areas of focus for urban work. Experts point out that these statements are just empty propaganda, driven by the need to maintain stability amidst economic downturn. At the core of this initiative is an upgraded version of the “shantytown redevelopment” project from a decade ago, aiming to boost the economy through urban village renovations. However, the effectiveness of this approach is questionable.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing on the 14th and 15th of this month, with Xi Jinping and six other members of the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee attending.
The conference proclaimed the goal of building modern cities that are innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and intelligent, and laid out seven key tasks for urban work, including advancing urban renewal, upgrading urban villages and old dilapidated houses, and enhancing overall social security and control.
Prior to this conference convened by the central government, there have only been four national urban work conferences held in the name of the central government since the Communist Party came to power, in 1962, 1963, 1978, and 2015.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun analyzed for Dajiyuan, stating that after the Communist Party’s so-called “reform and opening up,” it was only in 2015, under the leadership of Li Keqiang, that a similar conference was held, focusing on the shantytown redevelopment project aimed at urbanization. Now, with the introduction of the so-called seven major tasks, it is essentially about real estate.
Cai Shenkun commented, “They cannot mention stimulating real estate again, as they cannot do that now. They cannot bring up land finance again or shantytowns, which were attempted by Li Keqiang and failed. So, they have changed the name and introduced the so-called seven major urban tasks.”
Over the past thirty years, the Communist Party has implemented various versions of old city redevelopment projects. The shantytown redevelopment launched by the Communist Party in 2015 aimed to renovate 18 million sets of urban shantytown housing and 10.6 million rural dilapidated houses between 2015 and 2017. Due to inadequate compensation, it has often faced resistance, leading to numerous violent incidents. Many projects have been delayed or stranded due to the chain of fund disruption, relocation obstacles, and ultimately ending up as unfinished buildings.
At the end of last year, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong stated that 1 million sets of urban village renovations and old dilapidated house renovations will be newly implemented through monetary arrangements.
Cai Shenkun believes that much of China’s real estate is of poor quality and has now become dilapidated housing. The authorities are now promoting a new round of urban village renovations and old city renovations, still trying to use land finance to sustain their regime.
Renowned commentator Tang Jingyuan expressed to Dajiyuan that the core issue of this Communist Party Central Urban Work Conference is still the real estate problem. The previous Central Urban Work Conference held a decade ago introduced the shantytown redevelopment, peaking from 2015 to 2018. While it drove the real estate market and boosted economic growth, it resulted in a significant increase in local government debt, which remains unresolved.
Over several decades of urbanization in China, real estate used to be one of the biggest drivers of the economy, but it has been struggling for the past five years, with companies and local governments accumulating massive debts. The Communist Party’s heavily promoted “urban village revitalization” plan was expected to play a crucial role in driving the real estate market and boosting local economies. However, with recent economic downturns, fiscal constraints, and increasing resistance to relocation, many urban village redevelopment projects have been delayed or stalled.
Tang Jingyuan points out that regardless of the rhetoric used at this conference, the Communist Party is essentially repackaging Li Keqiang’s shantytown redevelopment policy, making some upgrades and adjustments, dubbing it “Shantytown Redevelopment 2.0,” aiming to stimulate economic growth through this approach.
However, Tang Jingyuan believes this is just a temporary solution. Even if it shows short-term effects, it will further increase the burden of local debt, indicating that the Communist authorities have no viable solutions to the economic dilemma.
Professor Ye Yaoyuan from the International Studies Department at the University of St. Thomas in the United States told Dajiyuan that the official release of these seven major work priorities is merely a deceptive internal propaganda tactic, aiming to give the impression that the Communist Party is working to enhance cities, building confidence with these flowery words. However, the implemented policies by the authorities are not significantly related to these clichés.
He believes that the primary purpose of the Communist Party holding this conference now is twofold: first, facing a stagnant economy, they are urging local officials through the conference to stimulate regional economies; second, authorities are concerned that under a sluggish economy, domestic backlash could affect the stability of the Communist Party’s rule, hence the need to devise strategies for preventing dissent in major cities.