On Tuesday, the Japanese Ministry of Defense released the “Defense White Paper 2025,” highlighting the most severe security challenges faced by the international community since World War II. For the first time, it explicitly identifies the Chinese Communist Party’s military expansion and provocations as the “greatest strategic threat” to Japan and regional security. The White Paper is available in Japanese, English, and Simplified Chinese versions.
The White Paper emphasizes that under a lack of transparency, the Chinese Communist Party has significantly increased its defense budget for over 30 years and accelerated the strengthening of military capabilities including nuclear weapons, missiles, and air and naval forces, posing a direct security threat to Japan. China’s frequent military actions crossing the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Western Pacific, especially between the so-called “first island chain” and “second island chain,” have raised high alert levels in Japan.
In May of this year, a Chinese helicopter took off from a Chinese Coast Guard vessel intruding into Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands), directly challenging Japan’s sovereignty. In 2024, incidents such as the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning entering contiguous waters between Yonaguni Island and Ishigaki Island, as well as Chinese military aircraft violating Japanese airspace, highlight China’s intent to “unilaterally change the status quo.”
Regarding the Taiwan issue, China continues high-frequency military exercises in the airspace and waters around the Taiwan Strait, aiming to normalize high-intensity military drills and enhance combat capabilities, significantly altering the military balance between China and Taiwan. The White Paper warns that Beijing may use “gray zone” tactics, such as deploying the coast guard to blockade Taiwan in the gray zone, as initial steps towards reunification.
Simultaneously, China’s expansion actions in the South China Sea have also raised alarms in Japan. China’s continued expansion activities and military installations in violation of current international maritime law seek to strengthen actual control over the South China Sea, posing a threat to regional freedom of navigation. The White Paper stresses that the situation in the South China Sea not only affects Japan’s maritime security but also directly impacts peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, warranting attention from the international community.
The White Paper also reveals intensified strategic cooperation between China and Russia. In recent years, both countries have frequently conducted joint patrols in the airspace and waters around Japan, demonstrating a demonstrative nature specifically targeting Japan, constituting a substantial security threat. In 2024, Chinese and Russian bombers and warships conducted joint operations outside Japan’s territorial waters, prompting heightened vigilance from the Japanese Ministry of Defense.
To address the escalating security situation, Japan will continue to strengthen its defense capabilities, advancing seven core capabilities including “out-of-area counterattack capability,” joint air defense and missile defense, unmanned equipment defense, cross-domain operations, intelligence command, agile deployment, and sustainability. Additionally, the “Joint Japan Operations Command” (JJOC) established in March of this year will integrate resources from the army, navy, and air force to realize seamless joint operations and cross-domain response mechanisms.
In terms of military equipment, Japan will accelerate missile deployment, including the American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and an improved Type 12 surface-to-ship missile, while developing Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) missiles to intercept hypersonic missiles. Furthermore, Japan will construct reconnaissance drones, enhance space perception systems, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare units.
Diplomatically, Japan considers the Japan-U.S. alliance its core security guarantee, not only strengthening joint combat capabilities with the U.S. military but also promoting intelligence sharing, defense technology development, and equipment maintenance cooperation. Additionally, Japan actively promotes multilayered defense cooperation with countries like India, the Philippines, and Indonesia, advocating for coordinated cooperation to enhance collective deterrence and advance a free and open Indo-Pacific order.
To support strategic implementation, Japan’s defense budget for fiscal year 2025 is approximately 9.9 trillion yen, accounting for around 1.8% of GDP, planning to increase it to 2% of GDP by 2027. The government stated that it will steadily raise budget expenditures, investing in core areas such as missile defense, communication satellites, unmanned drones, and logistics ammunition to ensure the sustainability and resilience of the defense system.
The “Defense White Paper 2025” systematically analyzes the security challenges posed by China and demonstrates Japan’s resolve and action plans to address these threats. The White Paper repeatedly stresses that Japan will not tolerate any attempt to alter the current status quo through force or coercion, emphasizing the strengthening of defense systems and diplomatic coordination to safeguard the lives, property, sovereignty, and regional stability.
Finally, the White Paper calls on the general public to widely understand and support defense policies, emphasizing that through continuous reform, defense innovation, international cooperation, and human resource enhancement, Japan will comprehensively enhance defense capabilities to uphold national peace and sovereignty.