Russian President Putin visited Beijing on May 16-17. A meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin was held at the Great Hall of the People on the morning of the 16th. This marked the 4th “Xi-Putin Meeting” since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and also Putin’s first foreign visit since starting his 5th presidential term on May 7. The formation of the so-called evil axis between China and Russia has always been a topic of great concern. Experts point out that Putin and Xi Jinping compliment each other while each has their own calculations.
According to a report by CCTV on the 16th, Xi congratulated Putin on his re-election during the meeting, stating that “China is willing to always be a good neighbor, friend, and partner to Russia.”
After the meeting, Xi Jinping met with journalists at the Great Hall of the People alongside Putin. Russia’s Sputnik News agency reported that Putin stated during the press conference that mutual trade and investment between Russia and China have been effectively protected and not negatively affected by any third party. On that day, China and Russia jointly signed and released a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership of collaboration in the new era on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Before departing, Putin praised the unprecedented high level of partnership between the two countries in an interview with Xinhua News Agency. He described the relationship between the two countries as an unprecedented strategic partnership.
Assistant Professor and Department Head of the European Studies Institute at Tamkang University, Zheng Qinmo, stated that this reciprocal visit between two dictators is very important. China’s strategy is mainly to prop up Xi Jinping, while Putin, who is currently wanted by the International Court, has limited options for foreign visits. After taking office, he chose Beijing as his first destination. Both Xi and Putin are boosting their own images, staging a performance of mutual praise in the media.
Zheng Qinmo believes that the strategic partnership between China and Russia, emphasized by Putin in his interview with Xinhua News Agency, has essentially been established, making it a focal point of the meeting between Putin and Xi.
“The China-Russia ‘unlimited cooperation,’ although China has made some adjustments, each country has its own strategic objectives. Their cooperation knows no limits, particularly regarding the current international order, both being authoritarian states hoping to expand their circle of friends. Additionally, China’s strengthening of assistance to Russia is part of their ‘unlimited cooperation’ established in opposition to the common interests of the West,” Zheng said.
However, Zheng Qinmo believes that China and Russia still have their own strategic considerations. Russia is also very cautious, especially in many cooperative projects such as development in Siberia; while China avoids overreliance on Russia, as evidenced by the delays in the construction of the Siberia Power of Siberia II gas pipeline factory.
“With China’s domestic economic decline and the almost trade war situation with the United States, Sino-US relations have deteriorated rapidly. China urgently needs to strengthen relations with Europe, especially to address the issue of internal overcapacity. The Russia-Ukraine war is the most unfathomable part for European countries regarding China. Russia has increasingly become a liability for China in international strategy. In such a delicate balance, Xi Jinping’s concessions to Putin may be limited,” Zheng analyzed.
Before the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin visited China, where the leaders of Russia and China announced the establishment of an “unrestricted” partnership and continued to strengthen diplomatic, trade, and security relations between the two countries. During the war, Russia faced sanctions from Western countries, but trade between China and Russia increased significantly, reaching record highs last year. Beijing never condemned Russia’s invasion but claimed to remain neutral in the conflict and called for peaceful negotiations considering both sides’ positions.
In March 2023, Xi visited Russia and left a message for Putin, stating, “Let us work together to promote the great change of the century.” In October 2023, Putin attended the Belt and Road Forum in China.
Assistant Research Fellow at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, Zhong Zhidong (2024), stated on May 16 that due to being sanctioned by Western countries, Putin has few opportunities for foreign visits, but his visits to China are very frequent, making China Russia’s most important ally and strategic partner.
“The so-called comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia, as interpreted by Xi Jinping, symbolizes unlimited friendship. Unlimited means that the breadth and depth of cooperation between China and Russia do not presuppose a stance, hence this cooperation relationship is filled with limitless possibilities,” Zhong said.
However, he believes that Beijing has a two-pronged strategy: on the one hand, it hopes to strengthen Sino-Russian relations to counteract the containment efforts of the US and Europe, but on the other hand, it is not willing to deteriorate relations with Western countries as a result of Sino-Russian relations, thereby facing potential sanctions.
“Currently, the strategic alliance between China and Russia knows no limits, but there is no sign of a military alliance. At least the actual situation can be adjusted,” Zhong added.
Zhong Zhidong stated that Putin’s visit to China this time gives face to Xi Jinping. As Putin’s first foreign visit after re-election was to China, and with another visit to China in less than two years, he continues to express his positions. Xi Jinping also showcases China’s so-called “increased international influence” through internal propaganda to legitimize his domestic rule.
Putin and Xi Jinping will attend the opening ceremony of the 75th anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations and the China-Russia Cultural Year celebration tonight. According to reports by Russian media, topics at the dinner on the 16th included Ukraine, the Middle East, and the overall situation in Asia. Russia’s new Defense Minister Belosov also accompanied Putin to the event.
The situation in Ukraine has brought China and Russia closer in strategic cooperation, possibly extending to include Iran and North Korea. Concerns arise that the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming the first proxy conflict of a “new Cold War” between China-Russia and the West, potentially leading to a new “world war.”
At a press conference following his victory, Putin responded to French President Macron’s proposal to “request Russia to cease fire during the Olympics.” Putin stated, “We will consider any proposal.”
On May 6, Macron urged Xi Jinping during his visit to utilize China’s influence on Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Xi expressed willingness to work with France and proposed a global ceasefire during the Paris Olympics, he also indirectly criticized the “scapegoating of third countries and inciting a new Cold War” in relation to the Ukraine crisis.
There is no indication that Xi Jinping will ask Russia, this ‘unlimited’ friendship ally, to cease the war.
During the Victory Day parade on May 9 in Red Square, Putin mentioned that “our strategic (nuclear) forces are always on alert.”
Zheng Qinmo stated that in the current situation, China’s so-called peace plan is very favorable to Russia but must not involve the use of nuclear weapons, something Russia cannot accept.
Zhong Zhidong believes that regarding a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin has not provided a specific response thus far but is unlikely to publicly oppose it. Moreover, Beijing’s stance on issues related to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea sovereignty dispute should receive positive responses from Putin during this visit.
Zhong Zhidong expressed that China is wary of the close monitoring by the US and the EU of China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. This is because China currently needs technology and economic trade relations with Europe and the United States. As China interacts with Russia, it is like walking a tightrope, needing to play both sides. However, the importance of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia actually supersedes the strategic partnership between China and Europe.
This could lead to the traditional strategic alliance relationship between the US and the EU being reinforced, then adopting a cooperative stance to counter the entire strategic alliance of China and Russia. “We can see that European countries are becoming increasingly involved in Indo-Pacific affairs, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea. Similarly, China and Russia’s military issues in the Indo-Pacific region also garner significant reactions. The competition between China and Russia and the maritime power of the United States and the West extends to the entire Indo-Pacific region,” Zhong explained.
Zhong Zhidong said that currently, Western countries are Russia’s most important adversaries, and after the final ceasefire is reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, if relations between Russia and Western countries improve, some of the longstanding contradictions between China and Russia may resurface.