New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary saw a significant shakeup in the latest poll released on Monday, the day before the official voting day. The poll results indicated that the progressive State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who has consistently held the second position in polls, surpassed former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the first time.
According to the final survey conducted by Emerson College Polling/PIX 11/The Hill for the Democratic primary in New York City, political newcomer Mamdani edged ahead of Cuomo in the final round of simulated ranked-choice voting with a 52% to 48% margin.
In the initial hypothetical round of voting, Cuomo led with 35% support, followed by Mamdani at 32%, Comptroller Brad Lander at 13%, City Council Speaker Adrinne Adams at 8%, former Comptroller Scott Stringer at 3%, State Senator Zellnor Myrie at 2.2%, and 4% undecided.
The numbers from this round of polling indicated Mamdani’s support had surged by 10 percentage points since the previous month, climbing from 22% to 32%, while Cuomo only saw a marginal increase from 34% to 35%.
As no candidate received over 50% of the support, the survey allowed voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference. After eight rounds of simulated ranked-choice voting, Mamdani secured a 52% support rate in the final round, surpassing Cuomo’s 48%.
Spencer Kiball, the Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Mamdani’s support had skyrocketed from 1% to 32% within five months, while Cuomo’s final level of support remained relatively stagnant. Mamdani’s support increased by 18 percentage points in the ranked-choice simulation, compared to Cuomo’s 12-point rise, placing him ahead for the first time in Emerson’s final round of polling.
In the previous round of Emerson polling conducted last month, Cuomo led Mamdani by 12 percentage points in the initial round of voting. Even at the 10th round of ranked-choice voting back then, Cuomo maintained an 8-point advantage over Mamdani with 54% to 46%.
Furthermore, Mamdani outperformed Cuomo by a margin of 41% to 31% in early voting. Among voters yet to cast their ballots but preparing to do so on June 24th, 36% supported Cuomo while 31% backed Mamdani.
With the third candidate Lander endorsing Mamdani, his supporters shifted their votes to Mamdani in the subsequent rounds of the simulation after Lander’s elimination.
The poll also revealed that voters under 50 favored Mamdani by a 2:1 ratio. In contrast, among older age groups, Cuomo led with 63% over 37% (50-59 age group) and 56% over 44% (60 and above).
When broken down by ethnicity, Hispanic voters favored Cuomo over Mamdani at 60% to 40%, Black voters also leaned towards Cuomo at 62% to 38%, while White voters showed more support for Mamdani at 61% to 39%. Asian voters overwhelmingly supported Mamdani at 79% to 21%.
In terms of educational background, non-college-educated voters favored Cuomo at 61% to 39%, while college-educated voters leaned towards Mamdani at 62% to 38%.
Regarding gender differences, male voters supported Mamdani by 56% to 44%, while female voters favored Cuomo by 52% to 48%.
The poll was conducted from June 18 to 20, surveying 800 individuals in the first round and 729 individuals in the final round, with a margin of error of +-3.4% and +-3.6% respectively.