Rumors of the imminent downfall of Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping have been circulating this year, with speculations about his potential successors. Ding Xuexiang, the youngest member of the CCP Politburo’s Standing Committee, recently visited Russia and met with President Putin, which was seen as Putin’s attempt to gauge the situation. Russian media have reported that Putin is set to visit China for four days at the end of August, with Chinese state media only vaguely mentioning “Chinese leaders” in relation to the visit.
On June 21, Xinhua News Agency reported that on June 20, Ding Xuexiang, a member of the CCP Politburo’s Standing Committee and the Vice Premier of the State Council, met with Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg.
According to commentator Li Lin, the recent rumors of Xi Jinping losing power and facing potential ousting have been fueled by a social media account named “Generalsvr,” claiming that Russia has received intelligence suggesting issues with Xi’s health, leading to some top CCP officials deciding to remove him. However, his inner circle is reportedly strongly resisting, with the Kremlin remaining vigilant. Putin’s meeting with Ding Xuexiang may indicate his interest in probing the situation in Beijing.
Analysts from “Vision of Hope” noted that the delegation representing the CCP at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum had no fixed hierarchy. In 2019, Xi Jinping personally attended the forum, while last year, only Wang Yong, Vice Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), attended. This year, Ding Xuexiang, who oversees economic matters, represented China, which in itself was not particularly notable. However, Ding’s involvement in the speculated succession of Xi has made the situation sensitive.
Xinhua News Agency reported that during the meeting between Ding Xuexiang and Putin, Ding mentioned some noteworthy phrases. For instance, Ding stated that Xi had visited Russia earlier and met with Putin by invitation, laying the groundwork for a “new top-level design” for the development of Sino-Russian relations in the next stage. Ding also referred to Xi and Putin’s so-called “directed helm” as the “greatest guarantee for the continuity of generational friendship between China and Russia.”
Political analyst Chen Pokong suggested in his online program that Ding Xuexiang’s use of the phrase “generational friendship” during the meeting with Putin was a subtle hint, indicating his aspirations as a successor. This also implies serious health problems for Xi Jinping, as he may be struggling to keep up with his duties. Due to health issues, Xi is only able to participate in limited diplomatic activities. After attending the recent Central Asian Summit, he needed an extended rest period.
According to Russian news agency TASS, Russian President Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov stated in an interview on June 22 that Putin is scheduled to visit China for four days from August 31 to September 3.
Ushakov mentioned, “China has prepared several activities. For Putin, such a long foreign visit is indeed ‘very rare.’”
Recent speculations overseas have suggested that Wang Yang, Hu Chunhua, and Ding Xuexiang are competing for the position of General Secretary of the CCP. Observers believe that these rumors may be deliberately circulated by various factions or individuals for attention.
Commentator Li Lin pointed out that Ding Xuexiang was originally associated with Jiang Zemin but later allied with Xi Jinping, possibly acting as a messenger between Xi and Putin to secure Putin’s support. However, Ding’s advantages in ascending to power do not outweigh those of Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua. His lack of experience in local governance and weakest abilities among Xi’s inner circle pose challenges. With Xi’s credibility dwindling, simply staying alive could be considered a success for him.
Independent political analyst Cai Shenkun claimed on May 6 that the upcoming Fourth Plenum of the CCP’s Twentieth Central Committee in the autumn will bring significant changes. Faced with current international dynamics, domestic economic challenges, and Xi’s health issues, the party elders have reached their limit and are collectively pressuring Xi Jinping.
Internal power struggles within the top echelons of the CCP have become increasingly public since last year. According to sources, Xi Jinping may still be in power publicly, but his influence is declining, while figures such as Wen Jiabao and Zhang Youxia have become critical factors in shaping China’s political landscape.
Commentator Du Zheng wrote in “The Shangbao” that as a totalitarian regime, power struggles within the CCP have always been brutal. The Fourth Plenum could turn into a reckoning for Xi Jinping, potentially leading to the dismantling of the CCP’s system as Xi steps down, paving the way for a stable transition to democracy without concerns about succession plans.