In May, China’s industrial value added increased by 5.8% year on year, lower than market expectations, and has been declining for two consecutive months.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Communist Party on June 16, 2025, the year-on-year actual growth of industrial value added for large-scale industries in May increased by 5.8% after deducting price factors, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from April.
In the months of January to February, March, and April this year, the industrial value added for large-scale industries was 5.9%, 7.7%, and 6.1% respectively, indicating a consecutive two-month decline in industrial value added for large-scale industries. The 5.8% figure in May is also the lowest since November 2024, when the year-on-year increase was 5.4%.
From January to May, the year-on-year growth of industrial value added for large-scale industries was 6.3%.
The performance of industrial value added in May was lower than market expectations. A recent survey by Caixin Media of 15 domestic and foreign institutions showed that the average economist forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value added for that month was 5.9%, with a forecast range of 5.1% to 6.4%.
Furthermore, China’s national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year on year from January to May, while in the same period in 2024, fixed asset investment increased by 4%.