Following the announcement of the Communist Party of China that the Third Plenum will be held in July this year, rumors have emerged overseas that veteran military leaders may exert pressure and challenge the Communist Party leader at the meeting.
On May 3, former Colonel and staff member of the People’s Liberation Army Navy Yao Cheng expressed on the social media platform X that prior to the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, various rumors within the military have been circulating. The focus is on discontent among the military ranks regarding the insertion of individuals who lack military knowledge and expertise into key positions within the military, leading capable and knowledgeable officers to feel a lack of prospects and submit reports requesting to leave the military.
Yao Cheng mentioned that the Communist Party’s military reports specifically draw a “red line” for military officers, indicating that the various phenomena within the military are not merely reflections of the grassroots level but might also involve high-ranking military officials or even retired senior generals who are dissatisfied with Xi Jinping exerting pressure at the Third Plenum.
Some viewpoints suggest that the military leadership of the Communist Party may harbor ill intentions towards Xi Jinping, possibly making preemptive moves.
There is indeed a considerable number of dissatisfied individuals within the ranks of the Communist Party’s military and government system. However, the question remains: Will the veteran military leaders actually exert pressure on Xi Jinping at the upcoming Third Plenum, or even challenge his leadership? I believe such a possibility does not exist.
Whether the veteran military leaders will pressure Xi Jinping or even challenge his leadership depends mainly on two factors: whether they have the motivation to do so, and whether they have the courage and strength to carry out such actions.
While the motivation to pressure or challenge Xi Jinping may exist, the veteran military leaders certainly lack the courage and strength to do so.
Since assuming the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping has initiated anti-corruption campaigns within the military and has conducted significant purges in the past two years. This not only cut off the financial resources of military leaders but also instilled a sense of insecurity and imminent danger, leading to deep-seated resentment towards Xi Jinping. In order to protect themselves, they may indeed consider pressuring Xi Jinping or challenging his leadership.
However, taking such actions would entail risks and consequences. Do the veteran military leaders have the courage and strength to bear these risks and consequences? The answer is no.
During the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping consolidated his power within the Communist Party, surpassing even Mao Zedong in authority, a fact that holds true within the military as well. Moreover, Xi’s autocratic personality does not tolerate any dissent. If the veteran military leaders were to pressure or challenge him at the Third Plenum, and if unsuccessful, they would undoubtedly face imprisonment.
Do they have the power to make Xi yield? No, absolutely not.
In early April, there were reports online about former Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Fan Changlong mentioning at a class reunion that authorities restricted his movements, limiting his time in Beijing to no more than one and a half months. This indicates that retired military leaders have no freedom of action. Even active-duty military leaders are under strict surveillance, including their secretaries and drivers.
Earlier reports from foreign media revealed that the downfall of Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao stemmed from his secretary informing on him, accusing him of disloyalty or collusion with foreign forces. Upon hearing this, Xi Jinping quickly took action, demonstrating a show of strength. As a result, including Li Yuchao, Xu Zhongbo, Wei Fenghe, Zhang Zhenzhong, Liu Guangbin, and Wu Guohua (the latter committing suicide), all senior officials of the Rocket Force were obliterated, all due to the actions of a low-ranking secretary.
Under such close surveillance, it is implausible for the veteran military leaders to instigate a coup. Challenging Xi at the Central Committee meeting could likely lead to immediate apprehension by the guards controlled by the Special Guard Bureau led by Wang Xiaohong. If they were to be sent to the Qin City prison, it would spell ruin and devastation for them. Do they have the courage for such actions? Absolutely not.
Considering how openly Xi dealt with the dissatisfied Hu Jintao during the 20th National Congress and the fate of Li Keqiang who refused to yield before Xi, it is clear that the veteran military leaders lack the audacity to do so.
While there may be motives to pressure or challenge Xi Jinping, lacking the courage and strength, it is inconceivable for the veteran military leaders to stage a dramatic display of pressure or challenge at the Third Plenum.