Recently, two aircraft carriers of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) successively crossed through Japan’s exclusive economic zone, with one of the carriers even crossing the “Second Island Chain” for the first time, causing high alert in Japan. Experts analyzed that on one hand, this may be CCP’s way of demonstrating to the United States and Japan, but its actual military strength is questionable; on the other hand, it may be due to recent turmoil within the CCP’s top leadership, leading the military to make such bold moves to shift internal conflicts externally.
Japan officially announced on June 10 that the CCP’s aircraft carrier battle group, the “Shandong”, entered the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near the “Okinotori Islands” in the southern tip of Japan in the Pacific Ocean on June 9. Okinotori lies between the First Island Chain and the Second Island Chain.
Meanwhile, the CCP’s other aircraft carrier battle group, the “Liaoning”, sailed near Japan’s easternmost Minamitori Island on June 7 within the Japanese EEZ, but later departed and conducted aircraft carrier-based fighter takeoff and landing exercises outside the EEZ on the 8th.
Japanese officials stated that the “Liaoning” had crossed beyond the First Island Chain into the Second Island Chain. This marked the first time a CCP aircraft carrier had crossed into the Second Island Chain.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense believes that this move by the CCP’s navy demonstrates its continuous military expansion.
The concept of Island Chains was proposed by the United States Secretary of State in 1951 as a containment strategy against the former Soviet Union, Communist China, and its communist allies, both geographically and militarily.
The First Island Chain includes a chain of islands starting from the Japanese archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, connecting to Taiwan, and extending south to the Philippines and the Greater Sunda Islands.
The Second Island Chain starts from Japan’s Izu Islands, Ogasawara Islands, the Volcano Islands (Iwo Jima), passes through the Marianas Islands and Guam belonging to the United States, and connects south to Yap Island, the Palau Islands, and the Halmahera Island.
The EEZ was established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, designating maritime zones extending 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from a country’s coast. While the EEZ remains international waters, the coastal state has exclusive rights over natural resources and economic activities within its EEZ.
The news of the CCP’s aircraft carrier crossing the Second Island Chain has sparked widespread concern. Dr. Chung Chih-tung from Taiwan’s think tank, the National Defense Institute, told Epoch Times that the CCP is showcasing its ability to project maritime military power and military presence between the First and Second Island Chains to intimidate the United States and Japan.
He stated, “Especially in the Second Island Chain, Guam is a key node. If the CCP can step beyond the First Island Chain and project military power between the first and second chains, it poses a significant military threat to Guam, not to mention the countries in the First Island Chain, especially Japan and Taiwan.”
Guam is one of the important military bases of the United States in the Western Pacific, often dubbed the “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier.”
Chung believes that the CCP is also demonstrating a shift in its naval development strategy from coastal defense in the past to open-sea defense at present. Under this grand strategy, if the CCP plans to take over Taiwan, it is crucial for them to be able to “project military power beyond the First Island Chain to counter American intervention.” This is known as the CCP’s “anti-access / area denial” (A2/AD) concept.
Professor Yeo Yao-yuan from St. Thomas University holds a similar view, but he told Epoch Times that based on the current capabilities of the CCP’s navy, particularly in terms of deep-sea combat and logistical capabilities, they are still “lacking” in surpassing the First Island Chain area.
“While they may have enough in terms of quantity of ships, the question remains whether they have the actual strength and readiness, and whether they are prepared to keep up with logistics. I believe most military experts hold reservations on this,” he said.
He mentioned that even without breaking through the First Island Chain, the CCP’s supply lines are already “relatively fragile and easily attacked.” If their deep-sea navy crosses the First Island Chain, it will be “extremely vulnerable to attacks, and maintaining combat capabilities will be very difficult” since the area between the First and Second Island Chains is vast ocean without supply points.
He pointed out that the CCP aims to build a “blue water navy,” meaning a navy capable of open-sea operations. However, currently lacking a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the CCP is putting its full efforts into developing one, though it remains just a “special focus” for them.
Yeo also raised the possibility that amidst recent internal unrest within the CCP’s top echelons and the military, the provocative actions by the CCP’s navy, such as entering Japan’s EEZ and crossing the Second Island Chain, among others, could be a way to mask or suppress internal divisions.
He analyzed, “Is there instability within the Central Military Commission? Or within the PLA’s top brass? This might be why they need to engage in higher-intensity military exercises with more stimulatory and conflict-laden elements to try to ensure that dovish figures internally keep quiet.”
“To a certain extent, this also shifts internal conflicts to external ones, creating a conflict outwardly, presenting itself in a more confrontational form. I think there is a possibility of this,” Yeo analyzed.
In addition to the rare crossing of the Second Island Chain by CCP’s aircraft carriers, there have been other provocative actions by the CCP recently.
According to Japan’s official external report on June 11, a J-15 fighter from the CCP’s “Shandong” carrier had tailed Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3C patrol aircraft for about 40 and 80 minutes on June 7 and 8, respectively. Moreover, the armed CCP fighter aircraft dangerously approached the Japanese aircraft – flying within a range of less than 45 meters at the same altitude – close to the point of collision, fortunately, no accidents occurred.
Japan expressed grave concerns and strongly demanded that such incidents be prevented from happening again.
Yeo stated that the provocative actions by the CCP “to some extent will further tense US-China relations, and will gradually make surrounding East Asian countries aware of potential expansion by the CCP.”
He believes that the CCP’s provocative actions will only make these countries “heighten their vigilance, increase military budgets, and strengthen alliances with the United States. In short, regardless of how they intimidate South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, or the Philippines, their most important military ally remains the United States. They will not change this, nor will they give it up.”
Chung also mentioned, “In general, from the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait to the South China Sea, the relevant countries in these four areas, if they are unwilling to accept CCP hegemony, they can only unite together, combine their forces with the United States, to jointly counter the CCP’s regional influence.”
According to satellite images on June 8, the US Seventh Fleet’s aircraft carrier, the “USS Nimitz,” is currently sailing in the South China Sea to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific region.