In the upcoming presidential election this November, Democratic candidate Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump will compete for the White House throne. The outcome may hinge on the results in seven crucial states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Known as “battleground states” or “swing states,” these states play a decisive role in determining which candidate secures the Electoral College votes, swinging back and forth between the Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.
Polls released on Monday revealed that in hypothetical head-to-head matchups in these critical states, former President Trump leads Biden in five out of six battleground states.
The poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer from April 28 to May 9 showed Trump leading Biden among registered voters in Pennsylvania (47% to 44%), Arizona (49% to 42%), Michigan (49% to 42%), Georgia (49% to 39%), and Nevada (50% to 38%).
In Wisconsin, Biden led in the same hypothetical matchup with 47% compared to Trump’s 45%.
Among likely voters, the results were similar with narrow margins between the two candidates in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania ranging from 1 to 2 percentage points. However, Biden gained a 5-point increase in support in Michigan, leading Trump by 1 percentage point with 47% to 46%. In Wisconsin, Trump regained his lead over Biden with 47% to 46% among likely voters.
When third-party and independent candidates were included in the poll, the results were relatively similar. Trump led Biden, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. maintaining the third position in Arizona (42% to 33% to 10%), Georgia (39% to 31% to 9%), Michigan (38% to 36% to 9%), Nevada (41% to 27% to 12%), and Pennsylvania (40% to 36% to 10%).
Trump and Biden tied in voter support in Wisconsin at 38%, while Kennedy garnered 9% support.
Polling agencies noted that other third-party and independent candidates never garnered more than 2% support in any of the matchups.
Compared to the previous poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College in October 2023, the latest results showed little change. In the previous poll, Trump led Biden in all five states except Wisconsin, where Biden had a higher level of support.
In recent months, Biden’s campaign team has intensified its outreach to voters while Trump has faced several legal challenges.
According to reports from The Hill, Democratic polling experts in Biden’s campaign team pointed out that poll results are inconsistent, with some showing Biden leading Trump.
Biden’s polling expert Geoff Garin stated in a statement, “The only consistency in recent polls is inconsistency. These results need to be balanced against over thirty polls showing Biden leading and making progress. That’s why it is wrong to draw broad conclusions about the campaign based on one poll result.”
The new survey sampled 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.
The national polling average by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Trump and Biden essentially in a dead heat at 44.7% and 44.6%, respectively. When including Kennedy in the polling average, Trump’s lead drops to less than 1 percentage point at 41.1%, Biden at 40.3%, and Kennedy at 8%.