Goldman Sachs Group stated that with the increase in trade barriers and the decrease in domestic production in China, the explosive growth of Chinese steel exports may have already peaked. Currently, Chinese steel is facing anti-dumping investigations on a global scale.
According to Bloomberg’s report on Monday, May 26, Goldman Sachs wrote in a report last Friday (23rd) that last year, Chinese steel exports reached the highest level in nine years at 1.11 billion tons, but it is expected to slow down by 3% in 2025 and further drop by a third in 2026.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the biggest challenge facing Chinese steel sales is the numerous anti-dumping investigations taking place globally.
It is expected that China’s steel production will decrease by 2% this year and by 3% next year. This means that production in 2026 will reach 946 million tons, more than 10% lower than the peak in 2020.
Goldman Sachs believes that “both domestic demand and steel export channels are under pressure, so production should naturally decrease.”
Galaxy Futures stated that the ongoing challenges faced by the construction and real estate industries severely weighed on the domestic steel demand in China. A Reuters survey indicated that overall, the Chinese real estate industry is expected to remain weak this year, with housing prices projected to drop by nearly 5%.
Goldman Sachs stated that domestic consumption in China is expected to decline by 2% in 2025, reaching 839 million tons, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline, as the growth in finished product demand is insufficient to offset the ongoing decrease in the real estate industry demand.
In terms of global market impact, Goldman Sachs mentioned that China’s disproportionately large share in global steel production will begin to decline.
As of 10:17 Monday morning, Shanghai rebar steel futures fell by 1.2% to 3010 yuan per ton, hitting an eight-month low. Singapore’s benchmark iron ore contract dropped by 0.8% to $97.30 per ton. The most traded September iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell by 2.15% to 707 yuan ($98.56) per ton. It earlier touched 704 yuan, the lowest level since May 12.
According to the data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), China accounts for nearly half of the world’s steel production capacity. Chinese companies contribute over 60% to new cross-border investments in steel production.
On February 10, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, expanding trade restrictions to some major trading partners to support domestic industries.
Therefore, Chinese steel exports have been hit hard by dual blows: the U.S. tariffs have blocked transshipment trade (where a third country resells Chinese steel to the U.S.); facing surplus capacity in the Chinese steel industry leading to low-priced exports, countries and regions such as Vietnam, India, South Korea, the European Union, Colombia, Taiwan, and others have started imposing tariffs or initiating anti-dumping investigations in an attempt to protect their domestic steel industries.
The International Trade Committee of Ukraine (ICIT) has initiated a mid-term review of anti-dumping measures against seamless hot-rolled steel pipe imports from China. The review procedure was launched at the request of Ukraine’s steel pipe manufacturer, Interpipe Niko Tube LLC. The Ukrainian Ministry of Economy stated that the request includes ample evidence indicating that terminating the current measures could lead to a resurgence of dumping and harm the domestic industry.
Until the Ministry’s review concludes, the anti-dumping duties imposed in 2020 will be extended.