Recently, there have been mysterious phenomena in the Chinese political scene, with frequent rumors abroad about the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, losing real power. Some analysts believe that Xi Jinping’s handpicked “Xi family army” is collapsing on a large scale, revealing its vulnerabilities. Party rules regarding accountability for the promotion of officials despite illness may be used to directly impact Xi Jinping at a critical time.
Xi Jinping has recently been accused of having his power surface while real power is gradually being stripped away, with continuous rumors circulating. Independent commentator Du Zheng wrote in an article for Taiwan’s media “Up Media” on May 26th, stating that regardless of the adverse international effects of Xi Jinping’s governance and the deteriorating domestic economy and livelihoods, looking solely at internal party personnel issues, Xi Jinping has a vulnerability that could lead to critical failures.
An article analyzing the “collapse of the Xi family army” pointed out that 26 members of the Xi family army, which has been promoted by the Chinese state media as personally overseen by Xi Jinping, have encountered issues. Out of the 79 generals promoted since Xi took office, 21, nearly a third of the total, have either fallen from grace or been rumored to be involved in scandals, most of whom are current central committee members.
The author pointed out that these individuals were recommended or approved by Xi Jinping himself. The Chinese military system is independent, with these generals recommended by Xi’s personnel manager in the military, Miao Hua, and approved by Xi.
Du Zheng believes that the widespread collapse of the Xi family army, whether involving corruption or political disloyalty, directly threatens Xi Jinping’s authority due to its significant impact. State media also claims that members of the current Central Committee are personally overseen by Xi, making him the ultimate responsible party.
The article also mentions the specific charge of “promoting officials despite illness” in the Chinese governance system. According to an opinion issued by the Central Committee of the CCP on August 29, 2016, those responsible for promoting officials despite illness and causing adverse effects will be held accountable, including the main leaders of the party committee, which naturally includes the Central Committee of the CCP.
Du Zheng believes that this sets the stage for Xi Jinping to be held accountable for widespread “promotion despite illness” as a precursor for potential repercussions if he faces a crisis of power. When Xi Jinping encounters a power crisis, opportunistic individuals may leverage these regulations to hold him accountable.
Former Minister of the Organization Department, Li Ganjie, was transferred to the United Front Work Department in March of this year. The Organization Department is a core power department of the central government, while the United Front Work Department is considered a less significant position. The newly appointed Minister of the Organization Department, Shi Taifeng, was promoted to Deputy Principal of the Party School while Hu Jintao served as a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and President of the Party School. Shi Taifeng and the late former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang were classmates in the Law Department of Peking University.
Du Zheng believes that Shi Taifeng’s assignment to the Organization Department overseeing personnel signifies the need for veteran CCP members to regain control of the political situation and is related to the resurgence of the factional group.
He also points out that with the troubles faced by Military Commission member and Director of the Political Work Department, Miao Hua, Xi Jinping’s military personnel team being taken down seems unlikely to be initiated by Xi himself. This lends more support to the claim that “Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia is leading a purge against Xi with the support of the elder statesmen.”
Independent commentator Cai Shunkun claimed on May 6 via social media that there will be significant changes at the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP. Given the current international situation, the domestic economy, and Xi’s own health issues, the veteran CCP members have reached their limit and are collectively pressuring Xi Jinping.
Du Zheng said that as a totalitarian regime, the internal power struggles within the CCP have always been brutal. In 2025, at least the upcoming Beidaihe Meeting in two months and later the Fourth Plenary Session will be crucial turning points for the CCP’s political situation. With Xi Jinping entering a crisis period for the past two years, significant events are anticipated in Beidaihe, likely involving the elders pressuring Xi. If there is indeed an internal power struggle within the CCP at Beidaihe, the Fourth Plenary Session may become a forum for holding Xi Jinping accountable. If the CCP system can disintegrate when Xi Jinping steps down, transitioning smoothly to democracy, there will no longer be talk of a successor.