Taiwan’s public interest policy and various think tanks jointly organized a seminar on the topic of “Battle in the Taiwan Strait? The Reality and Imagination of Chinese Military Invasion of Taiwan” on the 21st. Scholars and experts were invited to discuss the issue, emphasizing the need for Taiwan to strengthen its defense capabilities, enhance the overall societal defense resilience, and have a correct understanding of the risks posed by China.
The host, President of the Taiwan Professor’s Association, Chen Lipu, urged everyone to “care about relatively serious national defense issues together. Knowledge is power. By equipping ourselves, we will have more confidence in Taiwan.”
Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Ministry of National Defense Think Tank and the National Defense Security Research Institute, explained that some international think tanks have pointed out the possibility of “China taking military action a few years ago,” sparking discussions and anxieties among the public about China’s military invasion of Taiwan. The key factor, however, lies in the “timing” of China’s attack on Taiwan, rather than predicting the exact timing.
Shen Mingshi stated that the timing of China’s military invasion of Taiwan depends on three factors: whether the United States abandons Taiwan, China’s confidence in defeating both the U.S. and Taiwan, and Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities and will to resist China. These factors are interrelated, with the U.S. attitude depending on Trump’s stance, China’s confidence on the self-assessment of the military and leadership, and Taiwan’s military capabilities and will to resist depending on defense development, training, and the will to resist.
Wang Guochen, an assistant researcher at the Chinese Economic Research Institute, analyzed the economic costs of China’s military action against Taiwan, stating that it would directly impact China’s stock and currency markets, leading to severe inflation. Given Taiwan’s pivotal position in the global shipping lanes and the core of the global industry chain, an invasion of Taiwan by China would severely damage the world economy, causing a global economic crisis that would backfire on China’s economy.
Wang Guochen further noted that in the event of a military conflict between China and Taiwan, China would potentially lose at least $139.8 billion in direct investment, $359.4 billion in foreign investment and aid annually, freezing nearly $3.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves, resulting in significant losses. He also stated that China would prioritize its internal economy rather than solely increasing defense expenditures.
Yuzong Ji, an assistant professor at the Campus Security Center of National Taiwan University, stated, “Fear stems from ignorance. Many recent rumors have pointed to Xi Jinping’s imminent military action, but we should accurately assess the possibility of China taking military action.”
Yuzong Ji emphasized that this assessment could be observed through three key indicators: China’s confidence in its military strength, the degree of intervention by the U.S. and Japan in the cross-strait situation, and the unity within Taiwan. It is crucial for Taiwan to strengthen its unity and defense resilience, which are areas that can be controlled and enhanced.
Yuzong Ji added that China’s ultimate goal is to push Taiwan to the brink of surrender without fighting, through tactics such as spreading defeatism, advocating skepticism towards the U.S., paralyzing the government, attacking and disseminating false information, aiming to win the psychological warfare and take control of Taiwan without bloodshed.
Assistant Professor Ma Junwei of the Strategic Studies at Tamkang University pointed out that for Xi Jinping, capturing Taiwan would earn him the title of a national hero but would not elevate his position any further. On the other hand, defeat in a war could lead to a significant backlash against Xi, potentially resulting in his downfall or even death. Therefore, from a rational perspective, Xi Jinping would likely refrain from initiating a war.
Ma Junwei highlighted the “uncertainty” surrounding the involvement of the United States, Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines in case of a conflict would put immense pressure on China, which the Xi government and bureaucracy may find difficult to handle. However, readiness remains crucial as it would raise the costs of any Chinese military action against Taiwan and the U.S. intervention is contingent on Taiwan demonstrating its self-defense will, underscoring the need to strengthen overall societal defense resilience.
Chen Xianan, a researcher at a Taiwanese think tank, pointed out that there have been numerous rumors circulating in Taiwan’s social media community regarding military matters and simulations of the combat capabilities of both sides, often involving propaganda favoring China, denigrating Taiwan, and promoting skepticism towards the U.S. In the event of a war, as seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there would be more rumors related to the situation, national leaders, and various levels of government to disrupt information, sow chaos, and unsettle the public.
Chen Xianan mentioned that many Taiwanese avoid discussing war and the constant promotion of defeatism by certain individuals often creates unnecessary panic in society. Only through knowledge can one alleviate fear and empower individuals to face crises. Therefore, young people are invited to contemplate: when this test truly arrives, what roles can each of us play and what actions can we take.