The escalation of tensions at the India-Pakistan border, both being nuclear states, raises concerns about the possibility of a nuclear war. What kind of nuclear arsenal does India have, and does India’s “Agni” series of ballistic missiles and “Arihant-class” nuclear submarines really outmatch Pakistan?
The situation between India and Pakistan has been increasingly tense. After terrorists killed a large number of Indian civilians in the Kashmir region, both sides have heightened alert status, deploying a large number of troops along the border, with India even mobilizing its aircraft carrier. Both India and Pakistan are known to possess nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Will a nuclear war erupt between India and Pakistan, and what is the comparison of their nuclear capabilities?
On May 7th, India and Pakistan saw a renewed conflict, with the largest-scale aerial battle involving 125 fighter jets. Multiple Indian fighter jets were shot down, leading to missile exchanges escalating the warfare. A temporary ceasefire agreement was reached on May 10th. India and Pakistan are both nuclear-armed nations, with each believed to possess fewer than 200 nuclear warheads according to public data.
India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, officially entering the league of nuclear-armed nations, while Pakistan conducted five nuclear tests in 1998 to join the club. As of now, both nations have fewer than 200 nuclear warheads each.
In terms of striking capabilities, India notably surpasses Pakistan. India possesses a more comprehensive triad nuclear strike capability. On the land-based front, it has developed the “Agni” series of ballistic missiles with varying ranges, covering Pakistan and parts of western China. India’s successful test of the “Agni-5” intercontinental ballistic missile in 2022 marked a major advancement in its nuclear deterrent capability.
India’s navy and air force are also actively enhancing their nuclear delivery capabilities. The INS Arihant-class nuclear submarines, with their ballistic missile capacity, provide India with significant offshore nuclear strike potential. India’s Mirage 2000 and Su-30 fighter jets are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. India is also in the process of developing the “Nirbhay” supersonic cruise missile, enhancing its aerial nuclear deterrence.
On the underwater front, India is actively building its nuclear submarine fleet. Its first domestically developed nuclear-powered submarine, the INS Arihant, was commissioned in 2016, equipped with K-15 and K-4 ballistic missiles. Furthermore, the development of the K-5 submarine-launched intercontinental missile is expected to bolster India’s nuclear capabilities.
Looking at Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence, its focus remains primarily land-based, relying on the Hatf series of missiles. Pakistan has also developed air-launched cruise missiles like the Ra’ad and short-range tactical nuclear missiles like the Nasr for battlefield use.
In comparison, India possesses a larger nuclear warhead stockpile and a more extensive triad nuclear strike system. While India has a well-rounded nuclear deterrence strategy, Pakistan’s focus on land-based missiles limits its strategic reach.
The likelihood of a nuclear war breaking out between India and Pakistan remains low. Pakistan lacks the capacity for a pre-emptive strike due to India’s superior nuclear capabilities and diverse delivery systems. India, adhering to a No First Use policy, emphasizes restraint in nuclear deployment unless provoked.
The history of the two nations suggests that despite ongoing tensions, both have refrained from crossing the nuclear threshold during past conflicts. The risks lie more in terrorist attacks, miscalculations, or irrational escalation during border clashes.
In conclusion, the probability of a full-scale nuclear war in South Asia is minimal. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is defensive in nature, while India’s nuclear strategy focuses on deterrence and self-restraint. The real danger may arise from non-state actors, misjudgments, or irrational escalations during border tensions.