On May 15, 2025, Taiwan’s public policy organizations, think tanks, and other entities jointly held a seminar on the topic of “How Taiwan Should Perceive Risks from China.” Scholars and experts were invited to discuss the issue. The experts pointed out that Taiwan needs to reevaluate and understand the risks posed by China in order to strengthen societal consensus and defense resilience.
Moderator and Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, Yen Wei-ting, emphasized the increasing risks posed by China. It is necessary for everyone to reconsider how Taiwan perceives these risks. By doing so, societal consensus can be built, and resilience can be enhanced, enabling a better understanding of potential threats from the Chinese Communist Party and making adequate preparations for defense.
Researcher Hu Han-wen from a Taiwanese think tank highlighted that the threats from the Chinese Communist Party to Taiwan extend beyond just military aspects and also include economic, informational, and cognitive dimensions. He cited a survey conducted by the National Defense University, showing that while most people believe that a war in the Taiwan Strait is unlikely in the short term, especially the younger generation acknowledges the significant threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party to Taiwan’s national security.
Hu Han-wen stressed that the stark differences in political systems and societal cultures between both sides of the strait require Taiwan to cultivate the ability to “read Chinese risks” accurately. It is crucial to have a correct understanding of the nature of the Chinese regime and its ambitions towards Taiwan to avoid falling into misconceptions or propaganda traps. He called for active participation from civil society in discussions on risks, advocating for a rational approach towards challenges and seeking effective ways to address them.
Assistant Professor Nan Yue from the Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University analyzed that China’s threats to Taiwan include direct verbal provocations, military threats, as well as more indirect threats such as the “Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement,” which was an attempt to integrate Taiwan into China’s sphere of influence. The audience for such threats from China includes the Taiwanese public, political figures in Taiwan, and political figures in the United States.
Nan Yue believes that the most concerning threat for Taiwanese society is the “integration threat” as it has the most significant impact on daily life. It requires extensive discussions and communication to gradually reach a consensus on the threats posed by China, unifying responses from Taiwan.
Deputy Research Fellow at the Institute of Ethnology, Academia Sinica, Liu Wen explained that Taiwan’s major political parties have not yet reached a consensus on security issues, leading to discrepancies in the public’s understanding of the risks of war. This makes it challenging to determine how to attribute potential military aggression from the Chinese Communist Party.
Liu Wen mentioned that recent actions by the Chinese Communist Party, such as their gradual unification strategy for outlying islands, demonstrate their intention to normalize military operations against Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan must have a clear understanding of the international geopolitical landscape, enhance societal trust in the government and military, while balancing national security and public welfare to build defense resilience.
Associate Professor Huang Zhao-nian from the Institute of National Development at National Chengchi University discovered that how Taiwanese society perceives and responds to the threat of China varies depending on political affiliations. While the majority of Taiwanese acknowledge China’s military threat regardless of political stance, supporters of the green camp tend to lean towards a logic of “counterbalancing” aligned with realism, while those from the blue camp lean towards a risk-averse approach.
Huang Zhao-nian believes that in order to enhance understanding and responses to China’s threats, common values must be established to define shared national interests. Additionally, a common understanding of international relations should be developed to plan joint strategies, while cultivating social capital and political culture in public spaces to promote communication and trust.
Senior Analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, Yang Hao-wei, indicated that Taiwanese media tends to sensationalize news reports, heightening internal divisions and increasing “hate values” within Taiwan. This trend has led to a lack of any media platform connecting different ideological groups, making it increasingly difficult to build a sense of unity and shared identity.
Yang Hao-wei stated that under the influence of the media, representatives tend to adopt extreme rhetoric to cater to their imagined voter base and public opinion, impacting the quality of decisions made in the legislature. In such a scenario, Taiwanese media should introspect on their roles and values within civil society, and consider how to alleviate divisions and polarization within Taiwanese society.