After the U.S. and China reached a mutual tariff reduction agreement, the Chinese government lifted the ban on receiving Boeing aircraft from the United States. Experts believe that this move by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has complex calculations behind it. It not only reflects the CCP’s style of combining confrontation with trade but also highlights the dilemma faced by the Chinese aviation industry, which heavily relies on American and Western technology.
According to Bloomberg, on May 14, CCP officials began notifying domestic airlines that they can resume receiving and ordering American-made aircraft. Just a month earlier, Boeing had revealed that Chinese airlines had stopped accepting previously ordered Boeing planes.
On the day before (May 13), the U.S. and China announced in Geneva, Switzerland that within 90 days, they would reduce mutual tariffs from 145% to 125% to 30% to 10% and continue negotiations. This marked a temporary “truce period” after over a month of ongoing trade tensions between the two countries.
President Trump mentioned in an interview on May 13 that he does not rule out direct communication with President Xi Jinping regarding further details of a U.S.-China trade agreement. However, if a final deal is not reached after 90 days, he would consider raising tariffs on China again, but not to the previous level of 145%.
Sun Guoxiang, a professor at the Department of International Affairs and Business at Nanhua University in Taiwan, shared with reporters that the tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China first and foremost used the lifting of the Boeing ban as a bargaining chip in the negotiations.
He believes the CCP’s move aims to show goodwill to the U.S. to gain concessions in other areas, hoping to influence American businesses and Congress to soften their stance on China. Sun emphasized that the CCP’s repeated use of administrative bans as a negotiation tactic during the U.S.-China trade conflict could weaken China’s aviation industry’s forecasting capabilities, global cooperation trust, and industry upgrade path in the long run.
If the U.S.-China tariff “truce” does not result in an agreement after 90 days and President Trump decides to raise tariffs on China again, would the CCP once again impose a ban on purchasing Boeing passenger jets?
Sun remarked that if U.S.-China trade relations deteriorate again, the likelihood of the CCP reinstating a ban on Boeing aircraft is relatively high. This could involve freezing Boeing orders technologically or restricting deliveries once more.
Over the years, the CCP has used bans on purchasing Boeing planes and turning to buying Airbus from Europe as a means of pressuring the U.S. in trade. Sun noted that targeting Boeing is seen as a symbolically retaliatory tool given Boeing’s status as one of America’s flagship manufacturers.
However, Sun pointed out that if the CCP were to reimpose a ban on Boeing aircraft, it would symbolize a strategic setback for China’s aviation industry and hinder long-term international credibility and technological integration within the sector.
Researcher Shen Mingshi from the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies mentioned that banning Boeing would severely impact China’s aviation industry, as it heavily relies on Boeing parts. He suggested that the CCP is unlikely to use a Boeing ban as a retaliatory measure again due to the significant self-inflicted damage it causes. Shen explained that the ban affects China’s operational efficiency and its domestic aircraft manufacturing, including the C919 program.
Shen added that even if the CCP were to reintroduce the Boeing ban, the U.S. government might urge Boeing not to export to China to mitigate the impact, as it would affect China more than the U.S.
Sun highlighted that if China were to ban Boeing aircraft again, Boeing might shift its focus to markets in the Middle East, India, or Southeast Asia, as it currently faces a backlog of orders for models like the 737 and 787 series.
In the latest news on May 14, during President Trump’s visit to the Middle East, Qatar Airways, a state-owned airline, signed a monumental order with Boeing for 160 aircraft worth a staggering $200 billion. This marks the largest single order in Boeing’s history.
Sun mentioned that Boeing already has a backlog of several thousand orders for models like the 737 and 787, making it challenging for Chinese airlines to secure high percentages of delivery prioritization even if they were to resume contracts with Boeing.
Furthermore, Sun noted that Boeing’s deliveries to the Chinese market are subject to U.S. export controls as many electronic and avionic systems used in the aircraft fall under dual-use sensitive technologies, requiring case-by-case review and licensing.
Shen mentioned to reporters that the CCP’s ban on Boeing was a retaliatory measure against the U.S., but in reality, it has caused significant harm to itself. The ban has adversely impacted China’s civil aviation sector, given the country’s heavy reliance on Boeing parts for its aircraft, including the C919 program.
Considering pressure from the U.S. and its self-interest, the CCP has resumed its policy of accepting Boeing aircraft. Shen stated that China’s aviation industry cannot thrive without Western technology, emphasizing the dependency on Western materials and technology in aircraft development.
While China currently has its domestically produced large passenger aircraft, the C919, it has not yet achieved full commercialization, and its technology and capacity still have shortcomings.
Although the CCP portrays the C919 as a “domestically produced” model, reports have indicated that key components are supplied by foreign vendors, with a majority coming from the U.S., including engines, cockpit systems, landing gear, aircraft brake systems, and various critical technologies.
Sun emphasized that Boeing aircraft remains strategically essential for Chinese airlines. With the resurgence in peak travel and business demands, Chinese carriers face fleet expansion pressures, and banning Boeing aircraft would restrict their own progress. Sun further reiterated the inextricable connection between China’s aviation industry and the U.S. or the West for technological advancement, asserting that independent growth is challenging for China.
In conclusion, the recent developments in the U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the lifting of the Boeing ban reveal the intricate nature of economic and diplomatic relations between the two superpowers. The interplay of politics, trade, and strategic interests underscores the complexities and challenges faced by both nations as they navigate a path forward in their relationship.