During the early May visit of Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping alongside with other top officials, many of the other Standing Committee members of the party conducted “research trips” to various regions, leading outsiders to believe it may be in preparation for the upcoming Third Plenum in July. Whether the Third Plenum will involve personnel issues, including the final handling of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, remains a subject of great interest and differing opinions among analysts.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the morning of May 11th, Xi Jinping returned to Beijing after concluding his visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary. Prior to this, from May 5th to 10th, Xi Jinping made official visits with his close aide and member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP, as well as Director of the General Office of the Central Committee, Cai Qi.
Official reports indicate that from May 7th to 9th, Li Keqiang conducted research in Xinjiang; from May 7th to 9th, Ding Xuexiang visited Dalian and Shenyang for research purposes; from May 7th to 10th, Zhao Leji conducted research in Henan; and from May 6th to 8th, Wang Huning carried out research in Guangxi. Only Li Xi remained at the Zhongnanhai headquarters.
Chinese affairs expert Wang He expressed to Dajiyuan on May 11th that the reason the Third Plenum of the CCP is being delayed is due to significant disagreements and contradictions between the central and local authorities. As the preparations for July are underway, Xi Jinping wants to grasp the situation at the local level, ensure all members of the Standing Committee go on research trips, and guarantee a smooth Third Plenum.
Chairman of the National Committee of the China Democratic Party and political scholar Wang Juntao stated to Dajiyuan on May 11th that ahead of the Third Plenum, the CCP will hold a meeting of the Politburo, thus all members of the Politburo have to conduct research, with only the Standing Committee being reported on. The next step will involve the Standing Committee or a meeting of the Politburo determining the basic tone of the Third Plenum.
Observers believe that the positions of former CCP Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu within the Central Committee of the CCP will be addressed at the upcoming Third Plenum.
Former CCP official Du Wen, who previously served as a legal advisor to Hu Chunhua, expressed to Dajiyuan on May 11th that Qin Gang and Li Shangfu have been dismissed from their positions; however, both individuals remain CCP members and Central Committee members. Any decision to expel them from the Party or remove them from the Central Committee must be determined at the Central Committee meeting. It is anticipated that this upcoming Third Plenum will finalize their handling and may also see additions to the Central Committee.
Wang Juntao stated that the handling of Qin Gang and Li Shangfu is not of paramount importance; the Third Plenum is not for discussing personnel issues. “The First Plenum resolves Party personnel matters, the Second Plenum addresses government personnel issues, which have both been largely settled. The primary focus of the Third Plenum is setting the major political direction for the next five years.”
Political commentator Gao Xin recently analyzed and wrote for “Radio Free Asia,” suggesting that there are four possible scenarios regarding the treatment of Qin Gang and Li Shangfu at the Third Plenum.
The first scenario involves if CCP leader Xi Jinping has already decided to expel one of them from the Party, an announcement of the expulsion may be made before the convening of the Third Plenum.
The second scenario suggests that if the investigation and evidence gathering regarding Qin Gang and Li Shangfu or either of them is not concluded before the Third Plenum, a decision may be made during the Plenum, possibly announcing a review and passing of a report on Li Shangfu, discussing his removal from the Central Committee due to “serious disciplinary violations”.
The third scenario proposes that at the Third Plenum, the lightest party disciplinary action could be taken against Qin Gang and Li Shangfu or one of them directly, with a statement in the meeting minutes declaring a “removal from party positions” along with possible administrative and military demotions.
The fourth scenario speculates that there may be no resolution at the Third Plenum; instead, a decision to expel them from the Party could be submitted for review by the Central Political Bureau by the next Fourth Plenum next year for retroactive approval.
Commentator Wang Gong, in an article for “Voice of Hope,” suggested that much like Li Shangfu was removed directly from the CCP Central Military Commission member list on the CCP Ministry of National Defense website without any official announcement or central committee meeting, the authorities may not necessarily need to follow the central committee procedures in handling these cases.
He believes that even if the rumored Third Plenum takes place in July, it may not necessarily involve handling disciplinary matters of central committee members. The fate of several missing central committee members, including former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and central committee members from the military like Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and the central alternate member from the defense industry Yuan Jie, may not be publicly expelled from the Central Committee. The public may not witness the full extent of their handling by the authorities.