The United States and China are set to hold their first official trade talks in Switzerland over the weekend. Experts suggest that Beijing is well aware of the challenges it faces and the necessity to collaborate with the Trump administration, despite maintaining a tough stance within the Communist ideology.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng over trade issues on Saturday and Sunday in Switzerland.
Dennis Wilder, a senior researcher on US-China global affairs dialogue at Georgetown University, highlighted that many small and medium-sized enterprises in China are facing bankruptcy due to high tariffs hindering their access to the American market. The urgency for China to understand how to overcome this “predicament” is evident.
On Thursday, President Trump announced a “comprehensive” trade deal reached with the United Kingdom in the Oval Office of the White House, marking his first trade agreement victory since initiating global tariff conflicts.
The President anticipates significant progress in the trade negotiations set to commence over the weekend between the US and China, indicating Beijing’s willingness to make concessions.
“I believe it will be substantive,” Trump said regarding the negotiations. “China wants to make a deal and you see that. They have to do that.”
If the negotiations progress smoothly, the President may consider reducing the punitive tariffs of up to 145% imposed on many Chinese goods.
Trump expressed his belief that Beijing is eager to reach an agreement, stating, “I think it’s very good for both countries.” However, he also cautioned that China’s “massive trade surplus” with the US is unacceptable.
Author of “Cyber War: China’s Dangerous Domination in 5G,” John Pelson, suggested in an interview with a sister media outlet of Epoch Times, that the initial talks might not yield significant declarations but could provide signals of progress and potential concessions from both sides. He projected that it may take weeks or even months to truly finalize an agreement due to various complex issues at hand.
China’s economy heavily relies on exports, with a trade surplus of $295.4 billion in 2024 with the US, exceeding $400 billion in exports.
Reports estimate that Trump’s imposition of up to a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, with some tariffs reaching 245%, could lead to a 30% reduction in China’s exports to the US, a 4.5% overall decrease in exports, and a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points in China’s economic growth.
“There is no other place in the world where China can sell its products like the US market, and currently China has not built its own consumer-driven economy yet. They are still highly dependent on an export-oriented economic model,” Wilder mentioned in the interview.
“In my view, without the US market, China’s GDP would shrink, and they are aware of this fact. You can see this in the reactions of Chinese officials and high-level leaders sent to various provinces to appease the public,” Wilder stated. “They know they are facing a major problem and must collaborate with the Trump administration.”
Nevertheless, due to the Communist ideology’s guidance, China’s behavior may appear peculiar compared to normal societal norms.
Wilder emphasized the hope for China to engage in negotiations with willingness and readiness to make concessions, but also noted their sensitivity to acting leniently towards what they view as a superpower.
Wilder, a former CIA analyst on China, urged for an understanding of China as a dangerous force that necessitates coexistence while balancing both perspectives is exceedingly challenging.
When asked whether he would speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the weekend, President Trump indicated a possibility, remarking, “possibly, yes, of course.”
The media had previously inquired about the Trump-Xi call, debating who initiated the call.
“We can all play the game: who called whom first, who didn’t call? It doesn’t matter,” Trump mentioned on Thursday. “What matters is what happened in that room.”
A senior Indian media figure pointed out that Chinese President Xi Jinping refrains from direct contact with the US due to fear of Trump.
Sreemoy Talukdar, Deputy Editor of Indian media outlet “First Post,” noted in a column that Trump’s unpredictability, freedom of action, and capacity to withstand criticism pose a significant challenge to Xi Jinping.
“If the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party retaliates and confronts Trump, China’s already shaky economy will face more external shocks,” Talukdar wrote. “If Xi retreats, it may convey a ‘weak’ signal, which could be fatal for the Communist Party leader.”
Talukdar highlighted that Trump appears capable of enduring infinite blows, standing firm even amidst insults. The discomfort felt by the Chinese side stems from the perception of Trump as a democratic leader with higher thresholds for pain and a sense of destiny, enabling him to undertake actions seemingly improbable for leaders in democratic systems.
“The fact that Xi, who has faced two assassination attempts, can take steps that leaders in democratic systems find impossible, or at least challenging, adds to the unease in China,” Talukdar concluded.