Hello everyone, today’s top focus in the world is President Trump, who is undoubtedly the biggest news figure. He continues to dominate the headlines with two major policy trends since taking office: successfully escalating the trade war against China and facing setbacks in mediating the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Despite seemingly opposite outcomes, these events share a common underlying reason.
In the ongoing US-China confrontation, who will blink first? The latest explosive news is that Xi Jinping has taken the initiative to make concessions, not just in form but also in substantive actions. Does this mean that the US and China will quickly end hostilities, revive old dreams, and prosper together? Perhaps not necessarily.
Trump lashed out at Zelensky while stating that “Putin’s failure to annex Ukraine is a significant concession,” sparking a chorus of criticism. Is Trump’s intention truly to divide Ukraine with Putin? Probably not. Simultaneously, after Ukraine and Europe rejected the US version of the ceasefire plan, they formally proposed the Euro-Ukraine version, involving multiple sensitive provisions. So, what does this new plan entail?
On April 24, Time magazine published an interview with President Trump. When asked about tariff issues, Trump made it clear that Xi Jinping had called him. When a reporter asked, “If Xi Jinping doesn’t call you, will you call him?” Trump bluntly replied, “No.” The reporter then asked, “Did he call you?” Trump responded, “He did.”
However, when asked for the specific date of the call, Trump did not directly answer the question but stated, “He called me. I do not think this represents him showing weakness.” At the same time, he also indicated that if he were to call Xi Jinping, he also did not view it as a display of weakness on his part.
This news quickly became the headline of major media outlets. Of course, who initiates the call is not as easy as Trump makes it seem. He had previously stated publicly that he would not call Xi Jinping unless he called first. This indicates a game of face-saving and consolation, rather than a show of weakness.
The media and the public are closely following who made the first call, not just to witness the drama of who blinks first, but more importantly, because it signifies that the two sides have at least begun communicating. There is hope for a de-escalation or resolution of the tariff war, albeit currently hanging by a thread.
Related to this is the ongoing “Roshenki” incident. During a press conference at the White House, Trump was asked if the US and China had direct contact regarding trade issues. Trump confidently replied, “Yes, of course, every day.”
Trump also mentioned that communication between the US and China was going well and that decisions regarding tariff reductions depended on the Chinese side. During a meeting with the Norwegian Prime Minister on the 24th, Trump mentioned that China had held a meeting that morning, and he might reveal details later, stating that the US had been meeting with the Chinese side, among other things.
Surprisingly, both the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce issued statements refuting rumors of negotiations between the US and China on tariffs. They denied that any discussions or negotiations on tariffs had taken place, dismissing reports of progress in economic and trade negotiations as baseless and lacking factual basis. This sparked controversy online about whether China was contradicting itself or saving face.
The answer to this question is quite clear – there has been ongoing communication, contact, situation updates, and unofficial briefings between China and the US. However, this form of communication and the level of it does not constitute official ministerial-level economic and trade negotiations. Trump’s statements clearly refer to informal conversations, while China’s official clarifications deliberately play word games, referring to formal negotiations.
So, did Xi Jinping really make the first call? It seems likely, given the lack of a swift response from China refuting the claim after the Time magazine report was published. This proactive gesture of calling is significant in itself, irrespective of the content discussed, as it provides valuable information to Trump and the public.
This is just the verbal aspect of China softening its stance. In terms of tangible actions, China has recently made several changes.
On the 25th, Reuters reported exclusively, citing reliable sources, that China is considering exempting certain US imports from a 125% tariff and has requested relevant companies to submit lists of products eligible for exemption. There were reports of a special task force set up by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to collect lists of goods eligible for tariff exemptions, with companies also allowed to proactively apply for exemptions.
At the same time, a list covering 131 types of products potentially eligible for tariff exemptions has been widely circulated on social media and in business circles. The list includes a diverse range of products, from vaccines and chemicals to jet engines. Financial news outlets also mentioned that China is planning to include eight types of semiconductor-related products in the tariff exemption scope, excluding storage chips.
One of the mentioned chemicals that stands out is ethane, a crucial product in US exports that holds significant leverage and affects China’s plastic industry. With China being a major player in global plastic production and the largest buyer of US ethane, accounting for 45% of US exports, China relies heavily on ethane for plastic manufacturing, with 98% of their ethane supply coming from the US. If the US cuts off ethane supply, China’s plastic industry chain, indispensable in their manufacturing, would face severe disruptions.
Moreover, according to CNN, China quietly removed retaliatory tariffs on some US semiconductor products. The tariffs on the eight integrated circuit categories mentioned in Caixin have been reduced to zero. Additionally, China has decided to grant tariff exemptions on some aircraft parts, including aircraft engines and landing gear.
As seen from these developments, China’s concessions highlight its vulnerability and desire to relieve tensions caused by trade disputes with the US.
Feel free to share your thoughts and engage in our discussion.
– The Production Team of “Jingyuan Forum”