The trade war between the United States and China has entered a deadlock. The US is engaging in tariff negotiations with various countries, isolating China, while China is initiating diplomatic efforts to build an anti-US alliance. Analysts believe that Southeast Asian countries are pursuing pragmatic diplomacy based on national interests, rejecting China’s anti-US alliance and actively seeking to lower tariffs with the US.
A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce stated on Monday (April 21) that they firmly oppose “any trade deal that sacrifices China’s interests” and will not accept such a situation, vowing to take countermeasures if necessary.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is preparing to pressure countries seeking tariff exemptions from the US to reduce trade with China, including the possibility of implementing economic sanctions.
President Trump had suspended imposing high “reciprocal tariffs” globally, except for China. After successive increases, the US has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, while China retaliates with tariffs up to 125% on American products.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia from April 14th to 18th. Sun Guoxiang, a professor at the International Affairs and Business Department of South China University, believes that Xi Jinping’s visit aims to strengthen ties with neighboring countries and foster an anti-US sentiment to showcase China as a regional leader amidst the US-China trade war standoff.
Sun Guoxiang explained that while China is pushing for regional cooperation towards an anti-US alliance, ASEAN countries are choosing to maintain distance and adopt pragmatic foreign policy centered around national interests.
With the escalating US-China trade tensions, Southeast Asian countries are making rational decisions based on market interests and risk considerations, highlighting China’s lack of regional consensus and the deterrent power of US sanctions. ASEAN nations are navigating with a flexible balance strategy to maintain strategic ambiguity and negotiating flexibility.
Vietnam has been practicing “bamboo diplomacy,” welcoming cooperation with various countries without aligning with any specific camp. Despite signing numerous agreements during Xi Jinping’s visit, these are mostly symbolic diplomatic exchanges rather than substantial cooperation.
India is reportedly considering canceling import taxes on US LNG and planning to purchase more LNG and ethane products to reduce the trade surplus with the US. Similarly, Indonesia and Thailand are increasing imports from the US in exchange for potential tariff adjustments.
Southeast Asian countries are seeking to increase US energy imports while avoiding upsetting China to trade-off for reduced tariffs by the Trump administration.
Sun Guoxiang believes that Southeast Asian countries are avoiding taking sides between China and the US, indicating a prioritization of their economic relations with the US over becoming pawns in the geopolitical game between the two superpowers.
Xi Jinping’s efforts to foster an anti-US alliance during his visit met with a lukewarm response from Vietnam, as the signed statements were vague and avoided direct opposition to the US. This is seen as a subtle rejection of China’s actions in the South China Sea by Vietnam.
Sun Guoxiang further analyzed that Southeast Asian countries’ reluctance to align with China against the US reflects their focus on maintaining economic ties with the US and avoiding being used as geopolitical tools in the US-China rivalry, showing China’s ongoing struggle to attract the region economically.
Looking forward, the US-China trade war could escalate in three scenarios: further escalation leading to global economic fragmentation, continued stalemate in negotiations, or limited agreements with temporary tariff adjustments that fail to address structural conflicts between the two countries.
In the event of a further escalation, where the US intensifies tariffs on Chinese goods across multiple sectors, it could trigger retaliatory measures from China, disrupting global supply chains and causing market turbulence.
Sun Guoxiang also highlighted the internal and external pressures Xi Jinping faces, especially leading up to the upcoming Fourth Plenum of the CPC Central Committee in October. If Xi Jinping manages to retain power and maintain a hardline stance against the US, the trade war could potentially escalate, worsening US-China relations.
Ultimately, Southeast Asian countries are cautious in navigating the US-China trade war, seeking to preserve their economic security with the US while maneuvering to capitalize on opportunities arising from the trade tensions.