Former US President Donald Trump has been heavily involved in his 2024 election campaign, allocating a lot of energy to deal with the four criminal cases he is facing. However, three of these cases seem to be increasingly stalled. Recent court orders issued in the past two days have made it clearer that these legal battles are unlikely to cause devastating political blows to his 2024 presidential prospects or hinder his political momentum.
Currently, Trump needs to dedicate four workdays a week in Manhattan to attend the trial related to the “hush money” case, which is the only criminal trial Trump is facing before the November 5th election. However, many legal experts believe this is the least serious of the four cases, with weak implications for Trump’s alleged “wrongdoings,” chances of imprisonment, and political damage to him.
During less than 24 hours between May 7th and 8th, two court orders significantly reduced the possibility of any other trials before the November election and alleviated legal obstacles on Trump’s path back to the White House. Let’s summarize what’s going on.
On the morning of May 8th (Wednesday), the Georgia Court of Appeals agreed to hear Trump’s application to challenge the trial qualifications of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. Willis is leading the prosecution of Trump for allegedly plotting to overturn the results of Georgia’s 2020 presidential election. This move by the court implies further delays in the case, potentially leading to the dismissal of the trial against Trump and others.
For Trump, this is among the latest in a series of good news regarding his legal battles.
In the Georgia case, Willis indicted Trump and 18 other Republican allies last August, accusing them of conspiring to commit extortion and fraud to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state. Four of the accused have pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with Willis’ prosecutorial team.
The trial date for the case has remained uncertain, and in recent months, the litigation process has almost derailed, as Willis was revealed to have hired her romantic partner Nathan Wade as a special prosecutor to investigate Trump, leading to allegations of ethical misconduct and “conflict of interest” against Willis.
After months of whirlwind-like hearings, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled that either Willis or Wade must resign. Subsequently, Wade left in March, allowing Willis to continue prosecuting the Trump case.
Next, Trump and his 14 co-defendants appealed the decision by Judge McAfee not to remove Willis from the case. In a brief order on May 8th, the Georgia Court of Appeals approved the request to review that appeal.
Although Willis’ District Attorney’s Office opposed Trump’s appeal, the Georgia Court of Appeals wrote in a one-page decision, “After considering the interlocutory appeal, it is hereby ordered that the appeal be granted.”
Trump and his co-defendants accused Willis of a conflict of interest, alleging that she paid Wade significant fees under a work contract due to their romantic relationship, went on lavish vacations together with Wade footing the bills. Willis claimed in hearings that she repaid Wade in cash for her share, but neither of them could provide concrete evidence.
Willis and Wade both stated that they only started dating in early 2022, after Willis had hired Wade as a special prosecutor to investigate the Trump case. However, two witnesses familiar with Willis testified during the hearing that their relationship actually began in 2019.
Trump and his co-defendants argued that Judge McAfee’s factual investigation clearly showed that this romantic relationship not only presented an obvious conflict of interest but also undermined the criminal investigation and prosecution of Trump and others by Willis and Wade.
Their appeal stated, “If the law has any meaning at all, then the trial court’s factual findings unquestionably demonstrate an actual conflict.”
Representing Trump in this case, attorney Steve Sadow welcomed this development, stating in a press release, “President Trump looks forward to presenting intermediate arguments to the Georgia Court of Appeals explaining why this case should be dismissed and why Fulton County District Attorney Willis should be disqualified due to her unethical, baseless political persecution.”
The legal effort to disqualify Willis was initiated by one of the defendants in this case, Michael Roman, a member of Trump’s 2020 campaign team, followed by others, including Trump, leading to dramatic scenes embarrassing for Democrats.
Even if the Court of Appeals ultimately allows Willis to continue presiding over the case, the process of handling the appeal may once again delay the litigation against Trump and others for several months.
Judge McAfee stated that if the case goes to trial, for practical reasons, it would require at least two trials to handle the large list of 15 defendants.
The Fulton County prosecutor requested that Trump be tried together with all other defendants, but Judge McAfee has not ruled on this request. The case may also not reach the stage of a trial against Trump and others before the November election.
Just under 24 hours before the Georgia court agreed to hear Trump’s appeal, United States District Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida indefinitely postponed the trial scheduled for May 20th regarding the retrieval of confidential documents at the Mar-a-Lago estate.
Judge Cannon’s order did not completely close the door on scheduling the trial for the confidential document case in 2024, but it further cast a shadow on Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s efforts to bring Trump to trial this year. With the slow progress of the case in recent months, the possibility of moving into the trial phase has become increasingly slim.
Due to a series of pre-trial conflicts between Special Prosecutor Smith and Trump’s lawyers, it is widely expected that the trial date will be changed. Smith had urged Judge Cannon to reschedule the trial to start on July 8, but the May 7 order indicated that some trial dates would be postponed until late July, with a new trial date unlikely to be decided before late July.
Trump’s legal team pointed out that “planted” documents were found in the evidence of the prosecutor’s charges against Trump for “illegally” hoarding confidential documents at Mar-a-Lago.
Smith’s prosecution team acknowledged last week in court documents that some file boxes may not have been maintained in the exact order as when discovered.
Judge Cannon attributed the delay in the trial to numerous issues related to how to handle and present classified information during the trial, governed by the Classified Information Procedures Act (CIPA).
In a 5-page order on the 7th, Judge Cannon wrote, “The court also finds that it would be imprudent and would not comport with the court’s obligation to fully and fairly consider the host of unresolved and interrelated pretrial motions to determine a trial date at this time.”
She stated that she still has “eight substantive pretrial motions” to resolve before establishing a new schedule.
Cannon was appointed by Trump and took office at the end of 2020. She has not responded to Trump’s repeated efforts urging her to dismiss the case.
Over the past few months, a series of conflicts between Special Prosecutor Smith and Trump’s lawyers could derail the case, potentially leading Trump’s team to counter-sue the Department of Justice and the FBI.
In the most serious of the four criminal lawsuits against Trump — where Prosecutor Smith in Washington DC charges Trump with federal crimes for conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, disrupting the peaceful transfer of power to Joe Biden — the trial, scheduled two months ago, is also in limbo.
The Supreme Court agreed at the end of February to hear Trump’s appeal regarding presidential immunity, freezing the trial proceedings of the original lower court.
Prosecutor Smith is awaiting the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity, which will determine if he can continue pressing charges against Trump for the “alleged election overturning” until the year. The Supreme Court’s decision may not come until the end of June. If the justices do not grant broad presidential immunity to Trump, Prosecutor Smith will push for the trial to proceed in late summer or fall, but the complex process of applying the high court’s ruling to determine what exemptions Trump enjoys may further complicate the case.
It is still unclear how presiding judge Tanya Chutkan will consider holding a trial against Trump in the capital city at the height of the 2024 election campaign. Chutkan was appointed by former President Obama.
The oral arguments at the Supreme Court last month indicated that the justices may order Judge Chutkan to conduct detailed reviews of the charges and evidence before any trial proceedings, a process that is arduous, time-consuming, and could further delay the progress of the case.
With the delays and stagnation in the aforementioned three criminal lawsuits, many observers have realized that subjecting Trump to trial is much more challenging than bringing unprecedented criminal charges against him. These legal battles seem increasingly unlikely to impede Trump’s participation in the 2024 election as previously anticipated.
Political figures and senior figures in the legal community suggest a long string of trial delays — except for the ongoing “hush money” case in New York, all other trials seem distant — attributed to a combination of factors including Trump’s luck, his legal team’s strategies and actions, and the slow pace of the US justice system. Each time Trump appears in court, he can address a large number of television cameras to expand his influence and benefit from it.
The trial for the “hush money” case is expected to conclude at some point in June. If the trial outcome leads to Trump’s conviction, such as being sentenced to probation or imprisonment, it could potentially hinder his election prospects. However, Trump can appeal any conviction resulting from the “hush money” case, meaning any sentencing or start of imprisonment will be delayed until after the November election.
The stagnation of the legal battles has brought a turning point in Trump’s campaign activities. Earlier, to cope with the four criminal lawsuits, Trump’s team was prepared for a scenario where Trump would have to spend several months attending trials and staying away from campaign activities. Now, Trump can freely allocate more time to hold rallies, participate in fundraisers, or meet with campaign advisors and supporters.
Steven Cheung, spokesperson for Trump’s campaign team, stated in a press release, “President Trump and his team will continue to fight these unconstitutional schemes in court, and the American people will ultimately hold the cunning Joe and his allies accountable this fall.”
According to Real Clear Politics’ average of at least 10 major national polls released between April 12 and May 5 regarding the 2024 election matchup between Trump and Biden, Trump leads Biden by an average of 1.2 percentage points nationally. Furthermore, in seven key swing states, Trump leads Biden by 0.5 to 5.4 percentage points.