With the outbreak of internal and external crises in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the possibility of a CCP armed invasion of Taiwan is rapidly approaching reality much faster than people imagine.
On April 5, the US defense and security network publication 19FortyFive quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying that the CCP will attempt to occupy Taiwan within six months. This not only advances the timing from the previous speculation that the CCP would invade Taiwan in 2027, but also significantly reduces the element of speculation. The information indicates that senior CCP officials believe that the current US government may not be willing or able to prevent a CCP attack on Taiwan. Therefore, the question is not whether the CCP will attack Taiwan, but when it will happen.
This assertion is based on evaluations from unnamed intelligence personnel. According to this startling prediction, October 2025 could be a potential crisis point, where the situation in the Taiwan Strait escalates from a gray zone operation to actual warfare. This seems to coincide with the escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. CCP’s military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and provocations against Taiwan are approaching the limit of crossing the gray zone, becoming more frequent and normalized.
Last month, the number of CCP intrusions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone significantly increased. On March 17 and 21, 43 and 41 CCP military aircraft respectively crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait into Taiwan’s ADIZ. Throughout March, CCP dispatched a total of 311 military aircraft sorties, increasingly deploying high-altitude surveillance and reconnaissance balloons, with a maximum of 11 balloons in a single day. Since April began, almost every day saw over a dozen military aircraft sorties and multiple naval vessels operating around Taiwan, with most of them crossing the median line into Taiwan’s southwestern and eastern ADIZ.
CCP’s gray zone activities against Taiwan are becoming increasingly dangerous, not only depleting Taiwan’s defense resources but also attempting to provoke a reaction from the Taiwanese military through extreme actions such as repeatedly cutting undersea cables between Taiwan and offshore islands and direct collisions with Taiwan’s naval vessels. These long-term, frequent, large-scale, multi-service military actions approaching Taiwan island under the cover of gray zone operations may potentially transform into actual attack actions at some point in the future.
Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) Samuel Paparo stated on February 13 at the Honolulu Defense Forum that the regular Chinese naval vessels’ presence around Taiwan and the harassment flights of PLA Air Force aircraft are not exercises but war preparations to forcibly unify Taiwan.
The six-month timeline seems to align with meteorological conditions. Reportedly, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense identified April and October annually as the most likely time periods for Taiwan to come under attack due to calm seas and favorable tides during these months when CCP military exercises typically peak. This indirectly reinforces the plausibility of this assertion.
Furthermore, there are domestic and international driving factors for CCP to advance towards Taiwan before October this year. In October last year, Xi Jinping proclaimed at the CCP’s 20th National Congress that the historic mission of reunifying Taiwan was linked to the legitimacy of the CCP regime. This statement can also be interpreted as implying that an illegitimate CCP regime needs to maintain its existence through force, possibly through seizing Taiwan by force. In March, the National Development and Reform Commission of China announced a 5% economic growth target for 2025, but the Chinese economy under CCP rule is likely facing further challenges due to global tariff revisions led by former President Trump, potentially pushing the CCP’s economic environment into dire straits.
It’s no wonder that the CCP’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian threatened on March 5 in a statement to Xinhua News Agency, “If the United States wants war, whether it’s a trade war, a tariff war, or any other form of war, we are prepared to fight to the end.” The US and the West have reason to perceive this rhetoric as implying a threat of war towards Taiwan, as the options for the CCP to maintain its legitimacy are limited, not ruling out the possibility of the CCP choosing extreme actions to elevate its leader’s position and authority domestically. Whether the news of CCP accelerating the pace of attacking Taiwan is true to what extent, it reveals the desperation and reckless gambler mentality of the CCP, betting on the assumption that the US will not intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict.
However, the uncertainty of a CCP invasion of Taiwan is also evident. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a “2025 Threat Assessment” report on March 25 stating that unless there is a threat from Taiwan’s independence movement or provocative US intervention, Beijing may opt for coercive measures rather than warfare.
If senior CCP officials genuinely believe that the US government is unlikely and unable to prevent a CCP military attack on Taiwan, it may be wishful thinking on the part of the CCP, accustomed to deluding themselves and boosting their morale. In other words, any CCP military action plan against Taiwan in the future is unlikely to exclude the possibility of US military intervention and even the direct or indirect military involvement of regional US allies and partners such as Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Australia. The CCP may need to devise an operational plan that secures a fait accompli landing in Taiwan from launching an attack to engaging with the US and its regional allies before actual contact with the CCP military. However, this plan is likely a desperate scheme struggling within a very short timeframe, as the response time from the US and its allies may be unexpectedly brief. Of course, Taiwan itself possesses considerable defense and countermeasure capabilities.
The US is actively implementing its Pacific forward deployment strategy, enhancing military cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, and deploying intermediate-range missiles on islands in northern Philippines and southern Japan. The US Navy and Marine Corps in Japan have access to these missiles and long-range hypersonic weapons. These dispersed US military bases along the First Island Chain are only a few hundred kilometers from both ends of Taiwan, placing the waters around Taiwan and coastal areas of mainland China within the range of these weapons. This would mean that in the event of a CCP military attack on Taiwan, the US military could react almost immediately without any delays.
If the CCP cannot ignore the US military’s front-line presence, should they consider including the US military in the initial wave of attack plans? If so, it would mean declaring war on the US, Japan, and the Philippines simultaneously. This would unquestionably lead to the CCP’s destruction.
Some analysts believe that the CCP might not opt for such aggressive hostilities but rather attempt to exhaust Taiwan through blockade or unrestricted warfare. However, this approach would undoubtedly trigger global sanctions, resulting in the collapse of the CCP regime due to economic turmoil.
On April 1, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Romeo Brawner, instructed the Philippine Armed Forces to prepare for a potential Taiwan Strait conflict. He stated that if anything happens to Taiwan, the Philippines will inevitably be drawn into the Taiwan Strait conflict because there are 150,000 Filipino workers in Taiwan that need to be safeguarded. Brawner directed the Philippine Armed Forces to start planning now to counter a potential attack on Taiwan. He emphasized that they need to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan and not just defend the northern hemisphere of Mavulis Island.
The Philippines’ northern territory in the Babuyan Islands, particularly Mavulis Island and other islands, has received increasing attention from the Philippine and US military. During the 2024 “Shoulder-to-Shoulder” exercise, the US deployed sensors, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), the THAAD intermediate-range missile system, and air force units on islands between Taiwan and Luzon.
Co-founder of the Monitoring CCP Military Activities and Developments organization (PLATracker) Ben Lewis mentioned that evacuating Manila’s citizens from Taiwan could potentially require the Philippine military to cross the areas claimed by the CCP near Taiwan, possibly leading to “accidental escalation.” He emphasized that the unique geographical location of northern Luzon Island could have an impact on sudden events in Taiwan. It lies in the operational zone of southern Taiwan, including Kaohsiung Port and Bashi Channel, which is the gateway from the Taiwan Strait to the western Pacific. The base in northern Luzon Island could provide the US military with the capability to deploy aircraft and missile systems in advance, deterring CCP maritime and aerial operations in the region.
On March 28, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, and the US Navy conducted a multilateral maritime joint operation within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The US Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Shoup (DDG 85), the Philippine Navy Jose Rizal-class guided-missile frigate BRP Jose Rizal (FF 150), and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Akizuki-class destroyer JS Akebono (DD-108) participated in this multilateral cooperative mission, enhancing interoperability in naval theories, tactics, technologies, and procedures among the three countries.
Such multilateral joint actions in the Pacific region against the CCP indicate the formation of complex strategic alliances with the United States at the core in the Western Pacific region. Although not as tightly knit as NATO’s military alliances, the alliance and partnership relations centered around the United States with deployments on the front lines in the Western Pacific have effectively formed a regional military coalition. As part of the efforts advocating peace through strength led by the US, it will further deter the CCP.
(Translated and rewritten as requested)