Ukraine may End a Generation of Naval Service

In the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine’s unmanned surface vessels have played an irreplaceable role, not only in combating the Russian Black Sea Fleet but also bringing lethal firepower to Russian Black Sea coastal military ports and the Crimean Bridge. The latest news reveals that Ukraine has made progress in the development of unmanned surface vessels.

On March 25, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and person in charge of drones, Mykhailo Fedorov, released a new type of unmanned surface vessel called “Katran” on his Telegram channel. This is a multipurpose vessel used for carrying out attack and reconnaissance missions.

Reportedly, “Katran” has an effective range of over 1,000 kilometers, a speed of approximately 130 kilometers per hour, and is propelled by two water jet engines, capable of destroying land, sea, and air targets. It can maintain communication through a secure satellite link and has significant autonomous capabilities due to the use of artificial intelligence technology, operating under radio silence conditions even in adverse electronic warfare environments. It also features its own electronic warfare system for jamming or destroying enemy First Person View (FPV) drones. Russia often uses these FPV drones to intercept and attack Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels. It is also equipped with decoy rounds and smoke launchers to increase survival chances when under attack.

“Katran” can also be equipped with machine guns, surface-to-air missiles, and torpedoes, making it the most dangerous presence in the Black Sea region, potentially turning any Russian naval and aerial equipment into targets.

It is speculated that “Katran” likely carries torpedoes, a significant breakthrough in Ukraine’s unmanned surface vessel maritime attack capabilities.

Last February, Sweden provided Ukraine with $6.8 billion worth of “underwater weapons”. Although Swedish officials did not specify the contents of this assistance, generally speaking, only two things can be classified as underwater weapons – mines and torpedoes. People speculate that the weaponry provided by Sweden is more likely torpedoes, as torpedoes are more crucial than mines under current warfare conditions. Sweden possesses a range of small torpedoes like Saab Torped 47 and SLWT, which can attack both surface vessels and submarines.

SLWT can destroy vessels and submarines at depths exceeding 300 meters at speeds over 40 knots, with both active and passive guidance capabilities, attacking at distances exceeding 20 kilometers. Even if “Katran” is not equipped with SLWT, it can opt for Torped 45. Introduced in the mid-1990s, Torped 45 has similar autonomous guidance capabilities but is lighter than the SLWT. SLWT and Torped 45 are considered suitable for arming platforms like Magura V5, Sea Baby, or similar vessels akin to “Katran”. This anti-submarine capability is unprecedented for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These unmanned systems as weapon platforms are reusable, unlike the one-way mission execution of the Kamikaze drones.

To date, Ukraine has amassed a mixed fleet composed of various unmanned surface vessels, with at least 15 different types deployed in combat – ranging from simple robotic water scooters to modified commercial ships, the Sea Baby specialized for attacking the Kerch Bridge, to the latest “Katran” capable of launching underwater attacks. Functionally, this unmanned fleet can be categorized into low-cost Kamikaze drones armed with explosives, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms equipped with various sensors, attack platforms carrying multiple weapons, and transport platforms for FPV drones. These waterborne platforms can launch rockets at ground targets, surface-to-air missiles at airborne targets, and possibly torpedoes at surface and underwater targets.

Last December, a Russian helicopter was shot down by a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel-launched missile. Recently, Ukraine employed unmanned surface vessels as miniature “aircraft carriers” for FPV drone attacks, targeting coastal Russian assets including anti-aircraft radars and surface-to-air missile launchers.

The presence of “Katran” will make it more challenging for the Russian Navy to defend against unmanned surface vessels. Previously, Russia’s tactics against Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels involved long-distance helicopter attacks or allowing the vessels to approach for close-range gunfire or cannon destruction. However, neither method is viable now. Some unmanned surface vessels are armed with anti-aircraft machine guns or surface-to-air missiles, making helicopters attacking them vulnerable. While using ship guns for close-range destruction might be effective against suicide Kamikaze drones, it would be futile against torpedo-carrying unmanned surface vessels, which, if allowed to approach, could sink Russian warships from tens of kilometers away without any warning.

“Katran” represents the latest advancement in Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels, possessing enhanced and expanded attack capabilities. There is even speculation about how this trend might profoundly impact future naval warfare, potentially signaling the end of a generation of navies.

Some have drawn parallels to over a century ago when American inventor Nikola Tesla proposed an invention that could make “warfare obsolete”. In an article dated November 8, 1898, The New York Herald reported rumors of an impending global conflict sparking the announcement from a great scientific magician’s laboratory that a force capable of ushering in an era of world peace was being developed. This force could unstoppable destroy the mightiest weapons of all naval superpowers.

Tesla was quoted saying, “The world will soon know that the smallest country could afford to have a weapon that would make its coast impregnable, its harbor inviolable, and render its every battle ship absolutely powerless.” His vision was to use electricity, allowing a single person to control and command ships, balloons, or land vehicles of any type from any distance with pinpoint accuracy. Or to control these torpedo-carrying vessels to attack enemy ships on the water or underwater.

Interestingly, while Tesla envisioned a wireless control system that could contact and destroy enemy ships at any time and direction within the operator’s field of view, he did not foresee the use of satellites to establish global wireless communication and positioning today, enabling precise control of air or sea mobile platforms worldwide to carry out various attack or reconnaissance missions. He also did not anticipate these unmanned systems autonomously executing missions under human authorization.

Ukraine’s “Katran” has largely exceeded Tesla’s invention from the past. However, Tesla’s prophecy regarding such weapon systems has not become outdated even today. “Katran’s” innovative approach and design direction are highly forward-thinking, and in future developments, it is likely to expand weapon ammunition types, quantities, destructive power, attack range, platform endurance, stealth capabilities, electronic warfare, network operations, and autonomous attack capabilities. These unmanned systems, with the endorsement of artificial intelligence, could eventually phase out complex, expensive manned platforms including aircraft, warships, and tanks from the battlefield.