The United States think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a 40-page research report on May 7, stating that China’s authoritarian rule has severely eroded Hong Kong’s autonomy. The report urges the U.S. government to reassess its policies towards Hong Kong and presents three major policy direction options.
The CSIS report titled “The Erosion of Hong Kong’s Autonomy since 2020: Implications for the United States” is divided into four sections, covering Hong Kong’s significant role for the United States, potential solutions for the current crisis in Hong Kong, signs of eroding autonomy in Hong Kong, and the impact on U.S. policy choices.
In September last year, researchers Jude Blanchette and Scott Kennedy spent nine days in Hong Kong, interviewing current and former government officials, foreign diplomats based in Hong Kong, scholars, journalists, NGO leaders, top executives of local and multinational corporations, investors, and overseas Hong Kong community representatives.
The report indicates that under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has shifted towards authoritarianism, significantly weakening Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy. While Hong Kong still retains some autonomy in areas such as its way of life compared to other jurisdictions in mainland China, the overall trend shows erosion of autonomy in nearly all sectors, including legal and political systems, civil society, and the business and investment environment.
According to the report, not all erosion can be quantitatively captured until observers witness how participants adapt in subtle ways to the new political and legal realities, making the changes more apparent.
The report recommends that the U.S. government should reassess its Hong Kong policy to align with U.S. interests and Hong Kong’s autonomy and recovery. The three policy suggestions include punitive measures, revoking Hong Kong’s special treatment, and strategic engagement.
Regarding punitive measures, the report suggests sanctioning officials from mainland China and Hong Kong to increase Beijing’s cost for its actions. It also mentions opinions advocating for Washington to close or restrict privileges of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office (HKETO) in the United States, as well as sanction officials related to Article 23 of the Basic Law. However, the report notes that such actions could push sanctioned Hong Kong officials towards Beijing.
As for revoking Hong Kong’s special treatment, the report observes a trend where the CCP’s presence in Hong Kong is becoming more pronounced. The U.S. can accept and adapt to this reality by gradually eliminating different treatment and policy exemptions granted to Hong Kong under U.S. laws, treating Hong Kong as part of China. Under this approach, the U.S. should oppose Hong Kong’s participation in international organizations such as the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, and International Olympic Committee.
The report evaluates potential drawbacks of these measures, noting that they could hasten Hong Kong’s loss of autonomy in various aspects. Beijing might accelerate changes in Hong Kong’s political and economic landscape, including the possible cancellation of the Hong Kong dollar. The authors suggest that this could be a “feel-good” strategy that is unlikely to bring substantial benefits to the U.S. even if it weakens Hong Kong, but may not inflict significant harm on Beijing.
In terms of strategic engagement, it involves seeking to extend Hong Kong’s uniqueness and its remaining autonomy under CCP rule as a model for other regions of China. However, when necessary, targeted punitive measures should be applied.
The goal for the U.S. is to help Hong Kong maintain relative openness in an authoritarian socialist country, creating pathways for immigration and asylum for residents who wish to leave, while supporting the majority who choose to stay in Hong Kong’s freedom.
Under this strategy, the U.S. should maintain sanctions and other punitive measures while strengthening practical interactions between the U.S. and Hong Kong as needed. The overall objective is to slow down Hong Kong’s departure from autonomy through increased engagement.
In conclusion, the report highlights that solely relying on sanctions or abandoning Hong Kong could backfire, leading to further loss of its remaining autonomy. The report suggests that Washington’s wise approach should focus on preserving the remaining space for citizen participation, international interactions, and political discourse. This strategy requires patience and perseverance but aligns perfectly with U.S. interests.