Recently, Europe announced an investment of 800 billion euros for defense construction across the continent, which is an exciting development for European defense autonomy. Many are curious whether Europe will shoulder the responsibility of providing security for Ukraine.
Firstly, European countries have robust defense industries capable of producing top-notch tanks, aircraft, and artillery. For instance:
– Rheinmetall in Germany, which produces the most powerful cannons and fire control systems in the world. The main gun of Germany’s Leopard 2 tank originates from here.
– KNDS Group in Germany and France, responsible for producing the German Leopard 2 tank and the French Leclerc tank. Germany also boasts the renowned Diehl Defense company, specializing in various missiles and ammunition, such as the IRIS-T air-to-air missile.
– Thales in France, known for manufacturing Europe’s most advanced radar systems. The European multi-purpose frigates are equipped with Thales’ SeaFire phased array radars.
– MBDA Missile Systems Company, the largest missile manufacturer in Europe, producing the Meteor air-to-air missile, the French MICA air-to-air missile, the Storm Shadow cruise missile, and the Aster air defense missile, among others.
Italy is home to Leonardo Company, producing various military helicopters, radars, and electronic warfare equipment, participating in the European “Typhoon” fighter jet project. In the naval sector, Italy’s Fincantieri manufactures the “Horizon” class destroyers and multi-purpose frigates. Notably, the latest “Constellation” class frigate in the U.S. is based on Fincantieri’s design.
Sweden boasts the renowned Saab Group, producing various fighter jets and naval equipment such as the “Gripen” fighter and A26 submarines. The Saab 40mm anti-aircraft gun from World War II is utilized by Germany, the U.S., and the UK, highly regarded by all.
The UK is home to BAE Systems, a prolific manufacturer involved in air, sea, and land technologies. BAE Systems is the primary contractor for the UK’s “Challenger 2” main battle tank, the Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers, and the Typhoon fighter. The globally renowned ejection seat manufacturer Martin-Baker, whose ejection seats are used in the U.S. F-35 fighter jets, is also based in the UK.
In terms of research and development capabilities, I have no doubts about Europe, as they produce world-class weaponry. However, my concerns lie with EU policies—how much of the 800 billion euros will actually be allocated effectively?
Let’s delve into how this 800 billion euros was accumulated. According to current EU statistics, the EU comprises over twenty countries with an average defense budget of 1.7% of GDP, notably lower than NATO’s requirements.
During the recent EU meeting, it was proposed that member states increase their defense budgets as a percentage of GDP by 1.5 over the next four years. This would lead to an additional expenditure of approximately 650 billion euros. Furthermore, the EU as a whole will provide 150 billion euros in loans to assist member states in investing in defense expenditure.
In essence, of the 800 billion euros, 650 billion will come from individual countries raising their defense budgets, while the remaining 150 billion will be provided by the EU.
This is an ambitious plan; however, the final outcome may fall short. The primary reliance on member states voluntarily increasing their defense budgets, without mandatory requirements, is akin to setting a New Year’s resolution without a concrete plan for implementation.
Over the past decade, EU countries have often talked more than acted. For instance, during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the combined defense budget of EU countries accounted for 1.5% of total GDP. Three years later, in 2024, the latest statistics show an increased spending on defense to 1.8%, a nominal 0.3% rise in three years.
According to the EU’s current plan, aiming to increase defense spending by a further 1.5% over the next four years is almost doubling the previous defense budget, bordering on the impossible.
Moreover, the economic conditions across the EU have been subpar in recent years. In 2024, the EU’s GDP growth was a mere 1%. With these less than ideal economic circumstances, European countries face challenges in increasing defense spending significantly.
Another issue lies in different European countries’ attitudes towards current war crises. Countries like the Baltic States and Poland, historically invaded by Russia, show strong support for Ukraine and emphasize boosting their defense budgets. Poland has increased its defense budget allocation to 4% in recent years, significantly investing in various weapon systems. They procured over 1000 K2 “Black Panther” main battle tanks and other military equipment.
In terms of the air force, Poland has acquired South Korea’s FA-50 fighter trainer jets and procured 35 F-35A “Lightning” fighter jets from the U.S., showcasing their determination to confront Russia at their borders. The Baltic States, though smaller in size, have also bolstered their defenses by purchasing American systems like the “Patriot” air defense system, NASAMS air defense system, and K239 multiple rocket launchers.
However, countries in Southern Europe like Italy and Spain see Russia and Ukraine as distant threats. Italian Prime Minister Merloni clearly stated that Italy would not deploy troops in Ukraine. Italy currently allocates 1.6% of its GDP for defense expenditure, Spain and Portugal 1.5% each. It’s hard to fathom these nations raising their defense budgets to 3%.
The EU’s announced 800 billion euros defense investment plan is ambitious, yet two potential problems persist. Firstly, the lack of mandatory enforcement in defense spending relies entirely on individual countries’ volition to raise their defense expenditures. Therefore, while it’s called 800 billion euros, realizing 3,000 billion euros would be a positive outcome.
Secondly, developing weapons and equipment takes time. Creating a new weapon system takes at least a decade. Even upgrading existing production lines may require 1 to 2 years.
A pivotal concern regarding this 8,000 billion euros plan is the absence of detailed strategies on how it will aid Ukraine. While the trend of European countries increasing their defense spending is commendable, the actual support they can provide to Ukraine remains uncertain.
It is evident that from investment to production lines, it will likely take two to three years at least. By that time, the situation in Ukraine could be vastly different.
The 800 billion euros defense plan revealed by the EU is ambitious, yet two underlying issues persist: firstly, defense expenditure lacks enforceability, solely dependent on countries voluntarily increasing their defense budgets. Therefore, even if 8,000 billion euros are mentioned, realizing 3,000 billion would be a promising achievement.
Secondly, the development and production of weapons and equipment take time. The development of a new weapon system typically surpasses a decade, and even upgrading existing production lines could take 1 to 2 years.