Less than six months remain until the 2024 United States presidential election, during which unexpected developments may affect the momentum of the candidates’ campaigns.
Despite both President Biden and former President Trump breezily securing their respective party’s presumptive nominations, and the election proceeding as expected, any change in the game rules in the final months before November could potentially upend the current campaign landscape.
Here are five potential turning points in the presidential race summarized by The Hill that could shake up the campaign in the coming months:
Trump and Biden are the two oldest presumptive nominees in American history, with Biden at 81 years old and Trump turning 78 next month.
In February this year, Biden’s doctor wrote after the president’s physical examination that he was “fit for duty,” and there were no new health issues.
Last November, Trump’s doctor released a letter stating that the former president was in “excellent health,” with test results falling within the “normal healthy range,” and cognitive test results being “excellent.”
Concerns regarding the age of these two candidates due to health issues have mostly subsided, but even so, it is not inconceivable that one or both candidates may withdraw from the race due to health issues before November, as some younger presidents in the past have experienced major medical events.
International turmoil has become a backdrop to the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict. While the U.S. military is not directly involved in these conflicts, their political influence is evident.
As the incumbent president, Biden faces greater pressure in these conflicts. In the months leading up to the passage of the foreign aid bill by Congress last month, he has been pushing congressional Republicans to approve additional funding for Ukraine.
At the same time, Biden’s handling of the complex situation in the Middle East has exacerbated divisions within the Democratic Party. In recent weeks, intense protests have erupted on American university campuses demanding the federal government and universities cease support for Israel. Some far-left groups even threaten to protest Biden’s nomination as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
This development could either boost or hinder Biden’s campaign, depending on public perceptions of these conflicts.
Although third-party candidates generally have single-digit support in the election, both major parties have started attacking independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose support rates have occasionally exceeded 10%.
However, even if Kennedy’s support rate occasionally surpasses the single digits, he would need to increase his support to have a chance to appear in the fall presidential debates. If he manages to do so, it would be the first time in thirty years that three candidates stand on the debate stage, introducing another unpredictable element.
The support rates for the other two third-party candidates in polls have not exceeded 1% or 2%.
A significant increase in the support rates for third-party candidates could alter the election landscape. While they are unlikely to win the presidency, the rise of any candidate could lead to uncertain outcomes.
Economy is typically a key campaign issue in presidential elections, and polling shows it is also the top concern for voters this year.
Although the U.S. unemployment rate has remained historically low at below 4%, many Americans hold a pessimistic view of the country’s economic situation, especially considering that inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target despite a significant decrease over the past year.
If the economy falters or goes into recession, Biden will find it challenging to persuade Americans to believe in the economic outlook he presents.
One of the most likely turning points that may occur in the coming weeks is the outcome of Trump’s first criminal trial.
The trial of Trump’s “hush money case” has been ongoing for several weeks and could conclude before the start of summer. This may be the only one of the four criminal cases Trump faces that could be tried before election day.
If Trump is acquitted, it would undoubtedly be a significant victory for him, including politically.
If he is found guilty, it would be unprecedented, but the impact remains unclear.
Polls show that some voters believe if Trump is found guilty of serious crimes, he should not serve as president again. However, among those who say they would reconsider supporting Trump based on this, the vast majority of respondents indicate they would not vote for Biden.