Yesterday (March 11), Li Hongzhong, the Vice Chairman of the National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China, replaced Zhao Leji to preside over the closing ceremony of the NPC and announced that Zhao Leji was on sick leave due to a “respiratory tract infection.” This incident quickly sparked various speculations. Australian scholar Yuan Hongbing revealed that the power struggle for the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China has already begun ahead of schedule. Due to concerns about being sidelined, Zhao Leji wanted to attend the closing of the NPC despite his illness, but was rejected.
68-year-old Zhao Leji was last seen in public at the meeting of the NPC Standing Committee on March 8. During the “Two Sessions” period, Zhao Leji was continuously absent from important meetings.
Speculations about the reason for Zhao Leji’s absence are rampant, with some suspecting it to be a signal of his defeat in a power struggle.
However, according to Australian liberal scholar Yuan Hongbing, who has connections within the Chinese Communist system, it has been rumored in the official circles of Beijing that Zhao Leji did indeed have a severe respiratory illness, but he strongly insisted on participating in all the meetings he was supposed to attend. It is said that in his report to the Politburo Standing Committee, he even mentioned, “During the revolutionary war years, soldiers did not leave the front line even with minor injuries and did not complain about severe ones. I also want to uphold this revolutionary tradition. I only have a cold now and can still persist in attending this meeting.”
Yuan Hongbing stated that rumors circulating in official circles suggest that Zhao Leji’s insistence on attending these meetings is due to the preparations for the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party.
By the time of the 21st Congress in 2027, Xi Jinping may seek reelection. However, apart from Ding Xuexiang, most others are approaching the retirement age. Although Xi Jinping has disregarded the agreed retirement age within the CCP, himself and some of his select confidantes, such as Zhang Youxia, have exceeded the retirement age limit. But for the majority of others, they still need to retire based on the agreed age norm.
“Many people now want to maintain their positions as Politburo members. Zhao Leji is afraid that if he cannot attend a meeting due to health reasons, it may completely diminish his chance of reelection during the 21st Congress. That’s why he submitted an application report to the Standing Committee, saying minor injuries do not take one off the front line. The reason his report was not accepted by the Standing Committee is that everyone was afraid of being infected by him. Xi Jinping is very afraid, so he did not approve it.”
Yuan Hongbing does not believe that Xi Jinping is targeting Zhao Leji, as if he wanted to crackdown on him, he would not specifically use the NPC Standing Committee meeting to do so.
Apart from 71-year-old Xi Jinping and 62-year-old Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, all leaders of the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee are expected to retire in 2027, triggering the next round of reshuffling in the CCP leadership.
Yuan Hongbing stated that Xi Jinping is facing the most severe political challenges in foreign and domestic affairs, especially on the domestic front, the competition among members and standing committee of the Political Bureau for the 21st Congress has already intensified.
Senior contributor to the Nikkei Asian Review, Ke Erzuo, wrote on January 16th this year that factional struggles within the Chinese Communist Party have recently escalated significantly, as decisions about the next leadership team are largely set this year, potentially leading to a political storm in Beijing.
Yuan Hongbing had previously revealed to Epoch Times: the “Second-Generation Reds” believe that Xi Jinping cannot be reelected for the 21st Congress. They are concerned that if Xi is reelected, the entire Communist Party’s rule could be ruined by him, and all the Communist Party families would be finished. Based on this consensus, they cannot allow Xi to be reelected, thus using various methods to pressure him.