Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council released a reference document in the “China Mainland Situation Report”, emphasizing that the Chinese Communist Party’s “Work Conference on Taiwan” this year emphasizes taking “strategic initiative” and predicts that it will intensify efforts to promote reunification and oppose independence for Taiwan.
The Mainland Affairs Council of Taiwan released the key points of the 2024 first quarter China Mainland Situation Report on the 6th. Regarding the US-China relations, Secretary of State Blinken visited China in late April to meet with Xi Jinping. Although the two countries made slight progress in cooperation on issues such as drug control, climate, and military dialogue, they hold differing positions on Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, technology, trade, and regional security, even engaging in sharp disagreements.
In terms of social issues, social unrest in mainland China from January to April mainly revolved around campus disputes, labor protests related to land acquisition, real estate, and shadow banking, with campus management and economic downturn being the main sources of public grievances. Xinjiang continues propaganda on economic development and strict control over religion and ethnic groups; the US passed the Uighur and Tibetan Human Rights Policy Act, and the UN Human Rights Commissioner accused the Chinese Communist Party of violating human rights in Tibet.
In terms of Taiwan-related work, during the “Two Sessions,” the Chinese Communist Party reiterated its stance on Taiwan, with top leaders reaffirming the “One China Principle” and the “1992 Consensus.” This year’s “Work Conference on Taiwan” emphasized taking the “strategic initiative” to achieve reunification and it is speculated that the CCP will increase efforts to promote reunification and oppose independence, aiming to gain the upper hand in cross-strait relations.
The report also pointed out that after Taiwan’s election, the CCP continued to pressure Taiwan by unilaterally altering the operation of flight routes M503 and activating W122 and W123, attempting to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, through the incident of a “three-no vessel” capsizing, the CCP claimed that there were no “restricted or prohibited waters” in the Jinsha area, and is normalizing law enforcement patrols in the area to test Taiwan’s “red lines” and establish jurisdictional control facts.
In addition, Xi Jinping met with Ma Ying-jeou, emphasizing that both sides of the strait belong to one country and one nation, promoting integration and reunification with Taiwan, and inviting Taiwan compatriots to the mainland while welcoming mainland Chinese to visit Taiwan to promote bilateral exchanges. The CCP also engages with opposition party members in Taiwan to promote the “One China Principle,” the “1992 Consensus,” and oppose “Taiwan independence” and external interference, conducting united front operations against Taiwan.
In terms of CCP’s military dynamics and regional security, Xi Jinping called for comprehensive enhancement of “strategic capabilities in emerging areas” during the national “Two Sessions”; withdrew the designations of Strategic Support Force units, and adjusted the formation of Information Support Force units. The Fujian ship conducted sea trials on May 1, however, the US Indo-Pacific Command judged that CCP missiles (referred to as flying objects by Taiwan) pose a greater threat than aircraft carriers, with the commander reiterating that CCP is preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027; blockade or isolation is seen as the most likely way for CCP to increase military pressure on Taiwan.
In terms of the situation in Hong Kong and Macau, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the “National Security Law” (Article 23 of the Basic Law), leading to continued erosion of various freedoms of Hong Kong residents; external observers believe that the law undermines confidence from foreign investors. Macau amended the “Chief Executive Election Law” last year, which came into effect in January this year, further implementing the principle of “Macau people governing Macau” with patriots.
The Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the CCP, Xia Baolong, visited Hong Kong to create an atmosphere of support for the legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law across various sectors. The United Nations Human Rights Council reviewed human rights issues in Hong Kong and Macau, with the US once again stating in its annual Hong Kong Policy Report that Hong Kong should not enjoy special treatment, vowing to sanction officials in Hong Kong who suppress freedom and human rights.
Additionally, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced the movements of CCP aircraft on the morning of today, detecting 10 instances of CCP aircraft (including 4 instances crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entering the southwest and eastern airspace), and 5 instances of CCP vessels continuously operating in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait. The national defense forces utilized aircraft, vessels, and land-based missile systems to closely monitor and respond to the activities.