At the beginning of 2025, the political situation in China has become increasingly mysterious. The absence of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee member Ding Xuexiang from significant events, despite being previously seen as a potential successor, has sparked speculation. Reports suggest that Xi Jinping, who is still making public appearances, is actually seriously ill, and with no clear successor appointed by the authorities, the power struggle leading up to the delayed Fourth Plenary Session has intensified. Foreign media predict that a political storm may erupt in Beijing in 2025.
According to CCP’s Global Times, on February 10, Xi Jinping’s special representative, Politburo Standing Committee member, and Vice Premier of the State Council Zhang Gaoli attended the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Paris Summit.
Earlier, foreign media such as the Associated Press reported a few days ago that Ding Xuexiang, another CCP Politburo Standing Committee member and Vice Premier of the State Council, was expected to attend the summit.
Political commentator Zhou Xiaohui wrote on Epoch Times that sending Zhang Gaoli instead of Ding Xuexiang to the summit is somewhat suspicious because technology is Ding Xuexiang’s area of responsibility.
A leaked document outlining the “Work Division of the State Council Leadership for the New Term” within the CCP indicates that Premier Li Keqiang leads the overall work of the State Council, with Ding Xuexiang primarily responsible for the council’s daily operations, overseeing areas such as development, education, technology, finance, ecology, taxation, statistics, and intellectual property, while Zhang Gaoli handles industrial and information technology, emergency management, state-owned assets supervision, and market regulatory management.
On June 25, 2024, Ding Xuexiang made his first public appearance as the Director of the Central Committee of Science and Technology.
Ding Xuexiang has historically participated in similar events. For example, on January 21 of this year, he attended the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he discussed promoting artificial intelligence in response to questions. On November 20, 2024, Ding Xuexiang addressed topics such as internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain during the opening ceremony of the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen.
Speculations have arisen regarding the decision to send a substitute representative, rather than Ding Xuexiang, to the Paris Technology Summit. This is attributed to rumors suggesting that Ding Xuexiang may be ill or facing issues. An informant revealed in mid-December last year that Ding Xuexiang had ceased all work from December 20, 2024, with He Lifeng taking over his daily responsibilities at the State Council. Despite this, Ding Xuexiang attended the 2025 World Economic Forum in Switzerland in January and visited the Netherlands. Upon returning to China, he participated in a series of official events, including the Lunar New Year celebration on January 27.
On February 5, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the seventh plenary session of the State Council, attended by Ding Xuexiang.
In an unusual circumstance, on February 7, during the opening ceremony of the 9th Asian Winter Games in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, apart from Xi Jinping, other senior CCP officials such as Cai Qi, Wang Yi, He Lifeng, Wang Xiaohong, and Shen Yiqin were present, but Ding Xuexiang was notably absent.
Shen Yiqin, a State Councilor overseeing sports, typically remains on the list of attendees. However, within the Politburo Standing Committee, Ding Xuexiang seems to have a concurrent role.
At the opening of the 4th Asian Para Games in Hangzhou on October 22, 2023, Ding Xuexiang and Shen Yiqin were in attendance. Similarly, during the torch relay launch ceremony for the 31st Summer Universiade in Chengdu on June 10, 2023, Ding Xuexiang lit the torch and announced the commencement of the relay. During the opening ceremony of the Universiade on July 28, 2023, Xi Jinping, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, Wang Yi, Li Ganjie, Wang Xiaohong, and Shen Yiqin were present.
On January 22, 2025, Ding Xuexiang met with King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands in The Hague, emphasizing enhancing exchanges in youth, culture, sports, and other fields between China and the Netherlands.
Rumors and speculations surrounding Ding Xuexiang have been circulating recently.
Yujianhua, the Director of the General Administration of Customs who served as a special envoy for Xi Jinping, was reported to have committed suicide in his office on the evening of December 10, after being summoned by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. The General Administration of Customs issued an obituary late on the 11th, stating that Yujianhua had died suddenly from an illness.
Independent commentator Cai Shankun pointed out on platform X on December 12 that Yujianhua did not rise significantly during the Jiang Zemin era but gained prominence after Xi Jinping came to power. The individuals recommended by these Central Committee members are usually recommended by those close to Xi and are then confirmed by him. Yujianhua’s elevation is linked to his relationship with Ding Xuexiang, a fellow Politburo Standing Committee member from Jiangsu, as significant profits from projects under the General Administration of Customs pass through individuals associated with Ding.
Ding Xuexiang hails from Nantong, Jiangsu. Du Zheng, an analyst, pointed out that Ding Xuexiang’s career took off in Shanghai, with the majority of his allies originating there. Therefore, Ding Xuexiang is often labeled as the leader of the new Shanghai clique surrounding Xi Jinping. Traditionally, once an individual rises to prominence, they become a patron for individuals from their hometown and family. Consequently, following the disbandment of the old Jiangsu clique, a new Jiangsu group has emerged, forming alliances with Ding Xuexiang, who currently holds a prominent position in the Zhongnanhai leadership.
Cai Shankun analyzed on a self-media program that Ding Xuexiang, originally a member of the Jiang Zemin faction with ties to the Shanghai clique, particularly individuals like Han Zheng and Jiang Mianheng. Reportedly, Ding Xuexiang helped manage relations between Xi and the Jiang family, earning Xi’s favor. However, Ding’s relationship with Xi does not compare to the alliances between the Fujian clique, the Zhejiang clique, and Xi’s inner circle; they all check and balance each other, preventing anyone from becoming Xi’s right-hand man. While it was initially anticipated that Ding would oversee party affairs within the 20th CPC Politburo Standing Committee, Xi positioned Ding as the Vice Premier in charge of daily management, flanked by Li Keqiang and He Lifeng within the State Council, making Ding’s position precarious.
He further mentioned that the old Shanghai clique has lost its influence, welcoming a new group that pledges allegiance to Xi Jinping, largely driven by their operational competency. Ding Xuexiang’s ties to the Shanghai and Jiangsu cliques have made both the Fujian and Zhejiang cliques wary, turning Ding into a target of criticism.
Wang Youqun, a former analyst with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, emphasizing Xi’s anti-corruption stance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, noted Xi’s unwavering commitment to fighting corruption regardless of an individual’s rank or contributions, with no protection or immunity for corrupt officials.
The term “Iron Hats King” denotes an individual with significant power who could shield corruption scandals, previously associated with figures like Zhou Yongkang. In China’s current top echelons, there is speculation regarding who could deserve the title of “Iron Hats King.”
Since July last year, rumors have been circulating about Xi Jinping’s health issues and the analysis of his potential successors has resurfaced.
Being the youngest among the seven committee members, Ding Xuexiang (born in 1962) lacks economic governance experience as he primarily held secretarial and office management positions, making his appointment as Vice Premier feel rushed. However, Ding Xuexiang is believed to have political ambitions and hopes to be chosen as Xi’s successor before Xi departs, desiring to become the “second Hu Guofeng.”
On January 6, “Investigative International” reported an internal CCP message suggesting serious health problems for Xi Jinping. Analyst Li Lin highlighted the significance of this news, as Xi’s health issues could create opportunities for others aspiring to seize the highest power, given the uncertain status of Xi’s successor and the intensified power struggle expected before the Fourth Plenary Session.
The long-delayed Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, initially scheduled for the autumn of 2024, has not taken place. This session typically addresses party building and often involves discussions on the succession of top CCP leadership.
Senior Asia correspondent Nakazawa Kei of the Nikkei Asian Review wrote on January 16, 2025, highlighting the escalating factional struggle within the CCP. With decisions on next-term leadership imminent this year, potential political storms are likely to break out in Beijing.
Despite this, Du Zheng previously remarked that the CCP has been in turmoil in recent years, grappling with economic crises and facing increased global calls for the downfall of the party. The troubled regime, burdened by its misdeeds, cannot withstand further disruptions, and with time running out, once Xi Jinping exits, the CCP’s rule may crumble along with him.