Welcome to News Insight on January 20th. Today’s guest is Professor Fan Jiazhong from the Economics Department of National Taiwan University, hosted by Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: China’s economic data becomes a joke in the international community. Why did Trump urgently call Xi Jinping? China’s tactics against Trump prove ineffective. Is the U.S. government setting a new rhythm with China? Does the trade war lead to low inflation in the U.S.?
With Trump taking office, how will tariffs be increased? A sudden 60% hike in tariffs towards China or a monthly increment – what differences lie between the two? Will this lead to inflation?
China claims a 5% economic growth last year, but the U.S. treasury nominee stated China’s economy is severely declining. Rumors circulate about Trump planning a visit to China within 100 days – what is the reason behind it?
Before Trump took office, he had his first post-election call with China’s Xi Jinping. From the statements released by both sides, it seems there was no consensus. The Wall Street Journal disclosed Trump’s intention to visit China within the first 100 days of his presidency, sparking various interpretations. How does Professor Fan Jiazhong view this situation?
How will Trump’s tariff policy unfold? The world is watching closely. Before taking office, Trump had a two-hour closed-door meeting with Republican senators, clearly stating he won’t wait for Congressional approval to take action. He plans to issue about a hundred executive orders on his first day, focusing on immigration reform and reshaping relations with economic allies and adversaries. He tends to exert presidential power extensively on these issues.
Professor Fan Jiazhong on Trump’s potential actions and intentions: Trump’s approach is to not wait for Congress and maximize presidential power. The Washington Post asks if the tariffs will be uniformly applied? Rumors suggest Trump’s team is considering a clever tariff strategy, planning a monthly increase of 2% to 5%.
One of the central factors regarding Trump’s tariff policy is whether it will reignite inflation. Treasury nominee Benson defended Trump’s tariff policy in a Congressional hearing, emphasizing it won’t fuel inflation but serve as a potent negotiating tool. He also advocates extending tax cuts, believing Trump might usher in a “new economic golden age.” How does Professor Fan Jiazhong view tariffs and inflation?
China officially released economic data for 2024 last Friday, claiming a 5% growth rate that sparked ridicule both domestically and abroad. Magnus, former chief economist of UBS Group, labeled China’s data as “fabricated.”
U.S. Treasury nominee Benson stated, “China has the most imbalanced and unstable economy in world history. They are currently experiencing severe economic decline and hardship.” However, within the Chinese establishment, expert Lin Yifu stated that China’s economic growth is three percentage points higher than the U.S., suggesting that if this trajectory continues, China has a substantial chance of surpassing the U.S. before 2035 and becoming the largest economy.
Professor Fan Jiazhong highlights serious blind spots in the media’s analysis, citing the first major one being that the data provided by China is false.
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