Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy held a seminar on the topic of “Trump’s New Policies and the International Situation in 2025” today, inviting scholars and experts to analyze the impact. Chairman and President of the Institute, Tian Hongmao, mentioned that Trump’s presidency not only reshaped American politics but also brought significant changes to the current global landscape. With the high federal debt of 36 trillion U.S. dollars, exceeding 1.5 times the GDP of 28 trillion, Trump has proposed policies to revitalize manufacturing and make America great again based on traditional conservative patriotism.
Tian Hongmao emphasized that Trump’s actions should not be overinterpreted based solely on U.S. national interests. Trump has outlined a new direction for international order based on his handling of relations with the U.S., China, Russia, as well as NATO and security policies in the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan must carefully navigate the complex interactions between the U.S. and China.
The seminar was split into two sessions. The first session focused on “Trump’s Strategic Thinking and New Policies,” moderated by the Executive Director of the National Policy Institute, Wang Hongren. Former ROC representative to the U.S., Koh Shiow-teh, suggested that Taiwan should highlight its strengths and economic interests with the U.S., adjust defense budgets, improve defense capabilities, strengthen supply chain resilience, and sign agreements to prevent double taxation to ensure the continuity and normalization of Taiwan-U.S. relations.
Researcher Lin Zhengyi from Academia Sinica noted that Trump’s quick policy implementation within his first 100 days in office and his emphasis on Chinese threats in various areas signal a strengthening of U.S. military power. In response to China’s military advancements, Trump’s administration has accelerated military investments, reflecting Reaganomics by prioritizing military spending to maintain a competitive edge.
Su Ziyun, Researcher and Director of the Institute for National Defense Strategy and Resources at the National Defense Security Institute, pointed out that Trump’s second term presents a strategic opportunity for Taiwan. Trump’s focus on strategic locations like the Panama Canal and Greenland indicates a mature security perspective that values geographical importance. Taiwan’s crucial position in the first island chain defense and vital shipping routes could make it a reliable partner with increased defense resilience.
Legislator Zhao Yixiang mentioned that Trump’s focus on “America First” and reviving American greatness stands against unfair trade practices, urging countries to raise military expenditure. Despite his friendly terms with Xi Jinping, Trump’s actions aim to pressure China economically. He stressed the need for Taiwan to address its trade surplus with the U.S. by enhancing agricultural and energy product purchases to avoid exploitation perceptions.
Advisor Lo Chih-cheng from the Institute for National Policy Research stated that Trump’s proposals involving Greenland, the Panama Canal, and even the prospect of Canada becoming the 51st state are unanticipated issues that could reshape global dynamics. While Trump advocates for an America-first approach, his administration’s generosity toward international allies might change. However, reaching a major strategic compromise between the U.S. and China remains challenging.
The second session, focusing on “New Government Foreign Policy Directions,” moderated by Deputy Director of the Institute for National Policy, Kuo Yuren, anticipates that Mexico, Vietnam, China, and the European Union would be the initial focus areas for Trump in terms of trade and economy. The reinforcement of military alliances might follow in the cases of Japan and South Korea, with Taiwan potentially being part of the third wave. U.S. concerns regarding Taiwan include currency manipulation, trade deficits, low defense budgets, and semiconductor issues.
Kuo Yuren highlighted the importance of addressing currency manipulation issues through negotiation and setting standards to address trade imbalances. Taiwan’s expected trade surplus of over 65 billion U.S. dollars in 2024 necessitates significant military procurement to balance bilateral trade deficits.
Regarding Taiwan’s low defense budget, Kuo Yuren suggested that despite current parliamentary challenges, temporary setbacks are expected. With the new U.S. administration, stronger actions from the American Institute in Taiwan or Washington, D.C. might ensure adjustments in defense budgets to enhance self-defense capacities amidst political polarization. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s increased investments in advanced technologies in the U.S. are also anticipated to continue alongside developments in Taiwan.
Director Chang Wuyue from the Mainland China Relations Research Center at Tamkang University mentioned that tensions between the U.S. and China are unlikely to ease due to growing anti-China sentiment. Trump’s trade war with China will impact Chinese exports to the U.S., complicating their relations with Taiwan. Establishing political trust and resuming dialogue between China and Taiwan may face challenges in 2025.
Chief Economist Li Zhenyu from Taiwan’s Fubon Financial Holding Co. analyzed that the U.S.-China industrial competition will mainly focus on energy, high-end manufacturing, heavyweight industries, and artificial intelligence (AI). By revitalizing energy exports, reconstructing manufacturing supply chains, and enhancing AI leadership, Trump aims to surpass China economically and militarily. This strategic shift aims not only to counter China but also to bolster domestic prosperity and global leadership.
Dong Liwen, Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, outlined that the new U.S. government’s policies will likely prioritize a comprehensive anti-China and pro-Taiwan stance concerning diplomacy, military, strategy, intelligence, and economic trade. Despite Beijing’s efforts to weaken Taiwan’s government strategically, Trump’s administration is expected to continue supporting Taiwan.
Chairman Tan Yaonan from the Hui Li International Policy Consulting Group noted that Trump’s emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region in his inaugural speech reflects a focus on regional security. While reports suggest Trump may visit China within his first 100 days, complex issues, including potential Taiwan threats, will challenge negotiations. Taiwan must demonstrate a commitment to strengthening national defense and social resilience while emphasizing mutually beneficial trade and technology exchanges. The development of U.S.-Japan relations will center on military expenditure sharing and trade.
Professor Fan Shiping from National Taiwan Normal University observed President Lai’s efforts to proclaim government policies and extend olive branches for cross-strait communications. He suggested that Taiwan should increase purchases of U.S. oil, natural gas, and agricultural products to address trade imbalances and further develop Taiwan-U.S. relations.