Currently, Iran and Israel are engaged in a war that is, in fact, a delicate pas de deux, a ballet where each dancer must carefully anticipate the other’s steps. Failure to predict the other’s moves and act accordingly may lead to the worst-case scenario of a nuclear conflict, or perhaps the toppling of one government or both.
This situation could also serve as an opportunity for the gradual transformation and return to stability in the Middle East.
It is noteworthy that the interaction between Iran and Israel is not the terrifying dance that many other countries perceive it to be. Both countries are aware that they may possess significant nuclear arsenals, despite the international community believing or pretending to believe that only Israel actually owns nuclear weapons. Additionally, both nations know they face more significant enemies and are working to address political and security pressures.
Therefore, Israel is currently waging war against Hamas, an extreme Sunni organization in Gaza, fully aware of Iran’s powerful support for Hamas. However, it is often overlooked that Israel and Iran were close allies in the past, especially before the ousting of the Iranian king in 1979. After the king’s fall, Shia clerics took control of Iran, adopting an anti-Israel stance, which intensified only after the 1990-1991 US-Iraq war when the US virtually encircled Iran, leading to radical clerics taking power and attempting to threaten Israel to establish Iran’s infiltration into the “Western world”.
Iran also has its own geopolitical ambitions, like building a land bridge through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to reach the Mediterranean, which has always concerned Israel, especially after Iran parted ways with Israel during the pre-king era. Iran shares religious connections with these three bridge countries due to their Shia populations, allowing Tehran to establish Hezbollah in Lebanon as a Shia militia, serving as a proxy combat force.
However, the primary supporters behind Hamas in Gaza are Turkey and Qatar, both governments backing the Muslim Brotherhood’s expansionist agenda. Hamas serves as the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, historically opposed to Shia factions. Additionally, Turkey has been a rival to Iran since the Ottoman and Persian empires competed for dominance in Central Asia.
How does this relate to the current conflict?
Some reasons are superficial or political, while others are substantive, involving foreign partners of Israel and Iran and broader global strategic trends.
In the context of contentious US presidential election years, Israel faces a political crisis beyond war. Following the heinous massacre on October 7, 2023, advocating for Netanyahu’s dismissal gained traction as part of the discontent surrounding the Prime Minister’s leadership. However, the military escalation between Israel and Iran had valid reasoning. On April 1, 2024, Israel launched a significant airstrike on Iran’s consulate compound in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of two high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. This deliberate attack on Iranian sovereign territory constituted an act of war.
How could Iran respond without provoking further uncontrollable nuclear escalation? Iran’s response must be robust enough to safeguard its domestic and international reputation or enhance it, if possible. It is apparent that Iran cannot afford to appear weak under pressure.
On the nights of April 13-14, 2024, Iran retaliated against Israel, initiating revenge attacks and prompting Israel and its allies, mainly the US, UK, and Jordan, to prepare for drone strikes, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and rocket attacks. Iran communicated its intentions to the US and Israel, issuing specific warnings before launching weapons from Iran, providing a few hours’ notice to Israel and its allies’ air defense systems.
Moreover, Iran claimed its strikes targeted only military sites in Israel to neutralize high-value assets like F-35 fighters and personnel, resulting in no Israeli casualties except for a Bedouin child who accidentally strayed into the area. While Iran’s attack achieved the desired effect, it also demanded Israel’s attention.
Before discussing Israel’s retaliation, it’s crucial to note that Iran’s weapons proved inferior to Israel’s defense systems, a fact deliberately left unpublicized by both parties. Professionals are well aware of this reality.
On April 19, 2024, Israel countered Iran, meticulously prepared similar to Iran’s attacks on April 13-14.
As reported by the media, Israeli aircraft launched surface-to-air missiles from outside Iranian airspace, targeting an air defense radar and missile launch site near the Iranian Isfahan airbase and a launch site near the Natanz nuclear facility. These strikes resulted in minimal casualties. While a severe military issue, both Iran and Israel subsequently downplayed the incident. The air raids achieved their objectives, leading to a gradual easing of tensions.
Israel once again demonstrated its weapon superiority by destroying the Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in Iran, including its radar system, without detection by Iranian operatives. This action sent an essential signal to both Iran and Russia.
Russia plays a vital role in this drama, while Turkey is also involved. With the help of Iranian clerics, Russia made significant breakthroughs in the region by 2023. Russia gained access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, a primary goal in its centuries-long power struggle with the UK for dominance in Central Asia and the northern Indian Ocean coastlines, all facilitated by an agreement reached with Iran.
Iran joined the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) advocated by Moscow, allowing cargo to travel from St. Petersburg on the Baltic Sea coast in Russia to Astrakhan in southern Russia, through Dagestan and Azerbaijan to Iran. From there, a newly constructed railway funded by Russia transports goods to the Bandar Abbas port outside the Hormuz Strait into the Indian Ocean. This corridor greatly facilitates trade among the countries along the route.
This valuable international trade route bypasses the Suez Canal and frees from control by Western maritime nations, notably avoiding Turkey.
In response, the US proposed the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) in 2023, orchestrating a maritime path from India to ports on the southern coast of the Persian Gulf in the UAE. This route then traverses Saudi Arabia by rail, eventually reaching the Mediterranean and Europe, also circumventing Turkey. It is noteworthy that countries like Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Oman did not sign onto this new IMEEC initiative.
Turkey responded by striving to establish an alternative trade route to and from the Indian Ocean-Pacific region, passing through Iraq and potentially newly conquered Kurdish territories in Syria and Iraq to Turkey, then onward to the Mediterranean and Europe. Turkey proposed an invasion and control over Kurdish territories in Iraq and Syria within weeks or months.
Amidst all this, Russia remains particularly concerned about Iran’s precarious situation to prevent the disruption of the INSTC route it championed, considering its recent breakthrough. Turkey plays the role of the disruptor, aiming to thwart both the INSTC and the IMECC spearheaded by Washington.
Many other influencing factors in play pressure various parties behind the scenes to reach understandings and potentially involve countries like Israel, Russia, Iran, Syria, and possibly the US to deter Turkey’s disruptive activities. This could lead to Iran gradually withdrawing support for Hamas while Turkey reasserts its pivotal role in supporting Hamas.
Therefore, the Iran-Israel duet playing out can be viewed as an extended, deeply impactful show in a ballet season. It is evident that this scenario is part of the process of easing tensions between Iran and Israel over the past three decades.