In 2024, China’s population continued to decline as the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, marking the third consecutive year of decrease. Experts warn that China is facing ongoing challenges of low birth rates and rapid population aging, with the trend of decreasing total population unlikely to be reversed.
According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, January 17th, the total population of China in 2024 was about 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million from around 1.409 billion in 2023. Given the consistent data manipulation by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the actual total population in China is likely even lower.
The data released by the CCP on Friday heightened concerns as it is believed that China will face difficulties with declining labor force and consumer numbers. Additionally, the increasing costs of elderly care and retirement benefits could further strain already debt-ridden local governments.
In 2024, official CCP reports showed that the number of births in China slightly increased from 9.02 million in 2023 to 9.54 million. However, experts believe that this trend is unlikely to continue.
By the end of the century, the number of childbearing-age women in China (defined by the United Nations as ages 15 to 49) is expected to decrease by over two-thirds, falling to fewer than 100 million. Zhao Litao, a senior researcher at the East Asia Institute of the National University of Singapore, stated that “the upward trend in births is unlikely to continue, as the population of childbearing-age women is expected to sharply decline in the coming decades.”
“Long-term trends show a decline in birth rates, overall population contraction, and an acceleration of aging,” according to Zhao Litao.
An independent population statistician in China, He Yafu, believes that women who postponed childbirth during the pandemic chose to give birth in the Year of the Dragon in 2024, causing the increase in births that year. The Year of the Dragon is considered auspicious for marriage and childbirth in Chinese culture. However, He Yafu noted that fundamental factors such as a decreasing number of women of childbearing age and young people’s reluctance to start families remain unchanged.
“This year, the birth rate is expected to decline again,” he said.
He Yafu also pointed out that the long-term trend is for the death rate to increase annually as the population ages. In 2010, only 13% of the population was aged 60 and above. Now, this age group makes up more than one-fifth of the total population: rising from 21% in 2023 to 22% in 2024.
In 2024, the number of deaths in China was 10.93 million, surpassing the number of births, leading to a decline in the total population.
China’s birth rate has been steadily decreasing for decades due to factors such as the one-child policy implemented from 1980 to 2015 and rapid urbanization. The recent population crisis in China prompted the CCP to introduce the “three-child policy” in 2021 to encourage childbirth. However, high costs of childcare and education, along with job insecurity and economic slowdown, hinder many young people in China from getting married and starting families.
“The decrease in China’s population largely stems from deep-rooted structural reasons,” said Yun Zhou, Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Michigan, emphasizing that “without fundamental structural transformation – from strengthening social security to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed.”
By 2035, the population aged 60 and above, considered as retirement age, is expected to increase from around 280 million to over 400 million. The Chinese Academy of Sciences stated that by 2035, the funds of China’s pension system will be exhausted.
China was once the most populous country in the world, but in recent years, it has been facing a population crisis. In 2023, India surpassed China, becoming the most populous country in the world.