US intelligence officials assess that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Russia are increasingly cooperating on military issues, including the potential invasion of Taiwan. This has prompted the US government to formulate new plans to address potential joint Chinese-Russian military actions.
According to reports from Bloomberg, Inside Defense, and Newsweek, Avril Haines, the US Director of National Intelligence, stated during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday, “We see China and Russia conducting joint exercises related to Taiwan for the first time, and we recognize that China (CCP) certainly wants Russia to cooperate with them on this issue. We don’t see why they wouldn’t.”
Senator Mike Rounds raised concerns during the hearing, stating that the fundamental issue is, “If we engage with one party, we are likely to face a second front,” impacting plans, equipment, and manpower needs.
Haines acknowledged the possibility, saying, “Certainly it is possible,” but “the extent of the likelihood, I think, depends on the specifics of the situation.”
Senator Rounds questioned Jeffrey Kruse, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, about the Pentagon’s contingency plans for such a scenario.
Kruse mentioned that in an environment where China and Russia are certain to cooperate, the Pentagon is increasingly concerned about the requirements of “our joint forces,” stating, “We need to take this into consideration.”
“From the perspective of the Department of Defense, the situation is definitely like this, it’s just a matter of whether we really believe there will be two fronts. Over time, these analyses and assessments will mature,” Kruse remarked.
“We need to consider this in force structure and planning,” he said, referring to addressing the possibility of facing two fronts with China and Russia.
Since 2022, China and Russia have conducted multiple military exercises, including drills in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea last year.
Haines noted that the “unlimited” partnership between China and Russia means that the US military and intelligence community are increasingly concerned about potential conflicts involving China and Russia.
She added that intelligence assessments indicate that the cooperation between China and Russia is “increasing,” affecting every aspect of society: political, economic, military, and technological.
Before launching the invasion war against Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Putin met with CCP leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, where they declared an “unlimited” partnership. Following the comprehensive sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine war, China intensified its trade relations with Russia, leading to accusations from the US and Europe of providing a lifeline to Russia.
During a visit to China last week, US Secretary of State Blinken stated that without Chinese support, Russia’s attack on Ukraine would be hard to sustain. He also highlighted that China is the largest supplier of key products for military and civilian use, including machinery components, microelectronics, nitrocellulose (crucial for manufacturing ammunition and rocket propellants), and other dual-use products. He stated, “Moscow is using these products to strengthen its defense industrial base, which is producing rockets, drones, tanks, and other weapons.”
China’s support for Russia is not unconditional. On the most critical issue for Beijing, the Taiwan question, Putin has openly endorsed the CCP’s position.