Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping will visit Europe from May 5th to 10th, and will visit France, Serbia, and Hungary. This is Xi Jinping’s first visit to Europe in 5 years since the outbreak of the pandemic. Experts suggest that Xi Jinping’s approach to European partners, aiming to divide transatlantic relations, may not have a long-lasting impact.
Before Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe, Chinese Ambassador to Serbia Li Ming promoted the “ironclad friendship” between China and Serbia, while the Orban government in Hungary has allowed Chinese police to patrol in the country since February. Both countries are key target countries for China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Professor Zheng Qinmo, Vice Dean and Department Head of the European Studies Institute at Tamkang University, stated on May 3rd that Hungary is the most pro-China country in the EU, and Serbia is the most pro-China country among non-EU European countries, making these two countries more accessible for China. With Xi Jinping facing economic downturn and political tensions at home, he can enjoy high-level receptions in these two countries, facilitating domestic propaganda to portray his overseas visits as “significant victories.”
France is also a target country for China. Zheng Qinmo mentioned that France and Germany have long been unable to completely detach from China due to their reliance on the Chinese market, leading them to focus on reducing risks in a few high-tech areas. However, China’s aggressive export of new energy products to Europe and the US has caused significant concerns in those regions.
Zheng Qinmo believes that Xi Jinping’s visit to France may involve Airbus orders, as he hopes to find a foothold in Europe and, more importantly, to strain the relationship between the US and Europe, creating a so-called three-way balance, which is the primary objective of Xi Jinping’s European visit.
During his visit to Serbia, Xi Jinping will revisit the former site of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia. In 1999, on May 7th, NATO mistakenly bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, resulting in the death of 3 Chinese journalists and injuries to dozens. On the 25th anniversary, on May 7th, Xi Jinping will return to the original site to attend the opening ceremony of the reconstructed cultural center.
Zheng Qinmo stated that Xi’s visit to Serbia, particularly choosing May 7th to revisit the bombed embassy, is a way to highlight the harm caused by the US to Europe and to attract European countries through empathy.
Regarding Xi Jinping’s visit, Zheng Qinmo emphasized the delicacy of US-EU relations, especially with the possibility of Trump being re-elected as President by the end of the year, who is seen as a symbol of protectionism. Zheng noted that even without Trump, last year’s US policies on encouraging new energy industries have led to setbacks in European exports to the US.
Zheng believes that although China’s market may currently attract major German and French companies, the overall European sentiment, including in the US, towards China is largely negative. These sentiments will eventually influence the decisions made by politicians.
The call for the democratic world to contain China is growing stronger. Recently, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson defined China, under CCP rule, as an authoritarian state.
In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China has been supporting Russia, and recent US intelligence reports suggest that China is assisting Russia in reviving its military industrial complex.
Zheng Qinmo expressed concern over China’s actions in supporting Russia, which significantly harms European interests, and China’s lack of change or compromise in its behavior. Europe is also well aware of China’s involvement in the Hamas-Israel conflict, supporting Iran and causing regional instability in the Middle East. China’s aggressive policies in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region have major impacts on global geopolitics and international economies.
Despite Europe’s short-term reliance on China’s market, Zheng noted that China’s significant overcapacity is a challenge for global trade, with each country having its own domestic industries. This poses a major challenge to global trade, as China’s internal consumption confidence has collapsed, forcing China to rely heavily on the export of new energy products.
In conclusion, although Xi Jinping is making efforts to pressure and lure European partners, the long-term trend seems unfavorable due to China’s overcapacity and export restrictions, leading to a shift towards internal consumption. The solidarity of the democratic world against China has become a consensus, indicating the challenges that lie ahead in China-Europe relations.