Welcome to the “News Insight” broadcast on Wednesday, January 1st, 2025. In this episode, our guest experts include Senior Researcher Song Guocheng from the International Relations Research Center at Political University and Associate Professor Zheng Qinmo from the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University, with host Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s Focus: Is the CCP’s Proxy in Trouble in 2025? Sharp US-China Relations, Legitimacy Crisis for the CCP! Will CCP’s Foreign Strategy Completely Collapse? Geopolitics Turning Malicious, Wolf Warrior Diplomacy Becoming a Lame Duck Diplomacy? Unsolved Fiscal Deficits? New Developments in US-China-EU Relations?
As we step into 2025 with gratitude, facing many challenges and crucial choices in the new year, the main axis of international affairs continues to be the confrontation between the United States and China. The inauguration of Trump 2.0 is imminent, and on the last day of 2024, CCP leader Xi Jinping delivered his New Year’s speech, noticeably toned down, foreseeing “fierce winds and waves in 2025.” What crises will Communist China face in 2025? Will it accelerate the decline of CCP allies? How will the world move forward?
Early on January 1st, the Taiwanese media published a lengthy article by Professor Song Guocheng titled “The 12 Major Crises of China in 2025.” We are delighted to have the professor analyze and help us better understand the situation to prepare for the new year.
In a three-part analysis, we asked Professor Song Guocheng to describe the overall trend of Communist China in 2025 in one word. He chose “decline,” indicating a downward spiral of deteriorating situations, characterized by an “intensifying political and economic crisis.” Among the crises mentioned are the weakening of Xi Jinping’s position within the CCP, the collapse of his foreign strategy, and the sharpening of US-China relations.
Professor Song Guocheng’s analysis highlighted the internal instability within the CCP, the collapse of its foreign strategy, and the intensification of US-China relations.
Looking at this, Professor Zheng Qinmo was asked if the CCP is likely to once again court and divide Europe. Besides the ongoing tariff war, a key event in progress is the Russia-Ukraine war, where under the Trump effect, CCP’s attitude towards the conflict seems to be shifting. Will China re-engage with Europe? Will the war end in 2025?
In the second part of the examination of the 12 major crises of Communist China in 2025, we asked Professor Song Guocheng to discuss the domestic, internal, and societal aspects of China’s situation, including the shrinking national wealth, fragmentation of societal classes, expanding fiscal deficits, widening wealth gap, and the erosion of political legitimacy.
Professor Song Guocheng’s analysis highlighted China’s internal dilemmas and the erosion of political legitimacy. It was questioned if this phenomenon seems to be gradually occurring to pro-CCP dictatorial regimes or CCP’s proxy regimes? Particularly notable in the Middle East, from Hamas to Assad in Iran.
Professor Zheng Qinmo was asked for his thoughts on recent developments, such as the visit of Iran’s Foreign Minister to Beijing and Assad’s exile to Russia.
In the third part focusing on Communist China’s external factors, we asked Professor Song Guocheng to discuss aspects like geopolitics, attracting foreign investment, and trade. The crises discussed included the deterioration of geopolitics, the deconstruction of the “One China Principle,” radicalization of populism, and the fracture of the red supply chain.
Professor Song Guocheng concluded his analysis of Communist China’s 12 major crises of 2025 by observing the US-China confrontation, from proposing a “panoramic new Cold War” in 2022 to the “new detente” in 2024.
With just 20 days left in 2025, as the US transitions to a new government, both the US and China have been signaling moves. Xi Jinping’s New Year speech aimed to consolidate confidence in economic transformation and resistance to foreign pressures, echoing messages from Beijing before the Trump administration took office.
As China confronts the US and Europe on one hand, on the other, official CCP media outlets like People’s Daily and Global Times have recently initiated the so-called “China-US Friendly Cooperation Stories” essay contest. People’s Daily even addressed the US on New Year’s Eve, stating that a “new Cold War between China and the US is unwinnable,” emphasizing there are no winners in trade wars or tech wars.
Professor Zheng Qinmo was asked for his opinion on whether the CCP truly desires friendship with the US, and what strategic dynamics can be expected from Trump in 2025?
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